The Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins on August 2, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MNNT.
Read our Twins vs Guardians prediction and MLB pick below.
My Twins vs Guardians Prediction
- Twins vs Guardians Picks: Under 7
My Twins vs Guardians best bet is on the Under, with the best odds currently on BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Guardians Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 7 -110o / -110u | +147 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +127 | 7 -110o / -110u | -178 |
Twins vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Bailey Ober (MIN) | Stat | RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-6 | W-L | 7-9 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 5.28 / 4.48 | ERA / xERA | 4.39 / 3.60 |
| 5.31 / 4.89 | FIP / xFIP | 4.47 / 4.05 |
| 1.41 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 12.8 | K-BB% | 14.7% |
| 28.7% | GB% | 44.7% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 107 | Location+ | 98 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
This game activated one of Evan Abrams' PRO betting systems: Public Fades Humidity.
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity — ranging from 45% to 95% — intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which correlate with suppressed scoring in specific environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game Over rate sitting below 40%, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has subtly corrected as well, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest (between 6% and 29%).
These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar Under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pick: Under 7
