The Seattle Mariners host the Minnesota Twins on July 31, 2026. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SEAM.
The Mariners are favored by -168 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +140 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Twins vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Twins vs Mariners Prediction
- Twins vs Mariners Pick: Under 7.5
My Twins vs Mariners best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Mariners Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +125 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -155 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -168 |
- Twins vs Mariners moneyline: Twins +140, Mariners -168
- Twins vs Mariners over/under: 7.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Twins vs Mariners spread: Mariners -1.5 (+125 ), Twins +1.5 (-155)
Twins vs Mariners Probable Pitchers
| Zebby Matthews (RHP, MIN) | Stat | Bryce Miller (RHP, SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-8 | W-L | 4-5 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 5.21 / 4.73 | ERA / xERA | 2.75 / 2.66 |
| 5.14 /4.44 | FIP / xFIP | 3.64 / 3.47 |
| 11.0% | K-BB% | 22.7% |
| 40.9% | GB% | 36.3% |
| .279 | BABIP | .241 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 99 | Location+ | 112 |
Twins vs Mariners MLB Betting Preview
Twins vs Mariners Pick, Betting Analysis
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from today's episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
I would not bet this game much past where it is currently.
But Bryce Miller has never shown more drastic home-road splits. His splits are usually closer to like a run. But this year, he's pushing closer to 1.5-2 runs, with a 2.74 ERA at home, 3.98 on the road. His K-BB% goes from 31% at home to 17% on the road.
For whatever reason, he is just much harder to hit in their home park.
I don't think it's as simple as being at home in a park where more strikeouts occur. I think he specifically has characteristics about himself that have caused these drastic home run splits.
And the Mariners' bullpen, after losing back-to-back days against the Dodgers, should have all their high-leverage relievers available tonight. However, the two I would mark as unavailable would be Alex Hoppe and Cole Wilcox.
But Gabe Speier, Jose Ferrer, Eduard Bazardo, and closer Andres Munoz all should be good to go for tonight — who are Seattle's highest-leverage arms behind Miller.
Hopefully that should be enough to limit the Twins to two runs or fewer. And then hopefully the Twins staff can limit the Mariners to five runs or fewer.
We can keep this game to under 7.5 runs.
Pick: Under 7.5
