MLB Best Bets: 2 Picks for Saturday Evening’s Slate, Including Twins vs. Diamondbacks
Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: David Peralta (Diamondbacks)
While day baseball is the focus of this Saturday — including a heavyweight battle between the Yankees and the Jays — we can't forget about the five MLB games in action during the night portion of the slate.
Our experts are focusing on one matchup tonight — but are offering two separate best bets.
So without further ado, here's our selections below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tony Sartori: We have the second matchup of this three-game interleague series, as the NL West's Arizona Diamondbacks host the AL Central's Minnesota Twins.
Arizona won the first matchup, 7-2, with all nine of those runs scored in the first five innings.
I'm backing Arizona to find success in the first half of tonight's game once again. More than anything, this play is a fade of Minnesota's projected starting pitcher, Dylan Bundy.
It's been yet another tough season for Bundy, as he's 3-3 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.46 WHIP through 10 starts. He's been in particularly poor form recently, as he's allowed four or more earned runs in five of his last seven starts.
Bundy's metrics are just as bad, as he possesses a .334 xwOBA, .268 xBA and .476 xSLG. The Twins have lost on the F5 moneyline in five of Bundy's last seven starts (71%).
Overall, the Twins have now lost or pushed on the F5 moneyline in four of their last five games (80%). Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have won or pushed on the F5 moneyline in each of their last five games.
Play this up to -110.
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jules Posner: David Peralta has a pretty desirable matchup today, as the Diamondbacks take on the Minnesota Twins.
So far this season, Peralta is hitting .265 against RHP at home. However, he's hitting .308 with a .231 ISO against RHP at home in June. He's been relatively hot, and he'll be getting at least two at-bats against a starter who has been scuffling against all hitters on the road.
Left-handed hitters are slashing .385 with a .538 slugging percentage against Bundy over his past four road starts. He's given up a 43.5% Hard-Hit Rate over that span, as well.
Additionally, the Twins' bullpen has cooled off some over the past few weeks. With only one LHP in their bullpen, there's a good chance that Peralta gets to face a RHP at least three times.
Peralta has been hot over the past three weeks at home, hitting .393 with a .222 ISO against all pitchers. His total bases is still in plus money at +120 and could be a good value tonight.
Peralta has surpassed 1.5 total bases in all of his last three starts, and he should have a good shot at doing it again Saturday night.
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