MLB Best Bets: 5 Wednesday Picks for Reds vs. Brewers, Yankees vs. Marlins & More
Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: Yankees outfielder Juan Soto.
MLB Best Bets for Wednesday
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 3:10 p.m. | ||
| 6:10 p.m. | ||
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 7:05 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
With six games starting before 4:30 p.m. ET, we have a loaded MLB slate both under the sun and under the lights.
Our MLB writers came through with five best bets for Wednesday's games, including three team totals, a run line and an over on the strikeout prop for one of baseball's promising young pitchers.
So, whether you're looking to take advantage of the Coors Field air early in the afternoon or sweat out an evening game at Yankee Stadium, we have you covered.
Read on for all five of our MLB best bets for Wednesday below — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more MLB betting picks.
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
By John Feltman
The Diamondbacks have not eclipsed their run total in the first two games of their series against the Rockies, but they find themselves in a terrific spot on Wednesday afternoon.
The Snakes face left-hander Austin Gomber, who has been tortured by Arizona throughout his career.
Christian Walker and Ketel Marte are hitting above .360 against the lefty with a couple of homers apiece. After leaving a sea of baserunners on the basepaths last night, I have no doubts the offense will come out with a vengeance against Gomber.
Gomber is striking out hitters to begin the year, but he's allowing a ton of hard contact and fly balls. He has started the season with a 2.06 HR/FB rate, which is alarmingly high.
Between their offensive numbers against Gomber and the ideal hitting conditions at Coors, this is a smash spot for the D-backs' offense. They're far too talented to be held at bay for three consecutive games.
Pick: Diamondbacks Team Total Over 5.5 (-132)
White Sox vs. Guardians
By John Feltman
The Chicago White Sox scored seven runs on Tuesday night, but I would take those results with a grain of salt. During the contest, third baseman Yoan Moncada left the game early due to a lower-leg injury.
Moncada joins Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert Jr. on the shelf.
It's safe to say the Sox are completely depleted on offense and are going to struggle to score runs most nights.
That should be the case tonight as the Guardians send ace Tanner Bibee to the hill. Bibee is off to a solid start in 2024, generating plenty of strikeouts thus far.
The Sox rank in the bottom 10 in K rate, and yesterday's offensive results were an anomaly.
Instead of fading the Guardians offense and taking the full-game under, I have much more confidence that Bibee and Co. hold the Sox bats at bay.
Pick: White Sox Team Total Under 3.5 (-150)
Cubs vs. Padres
By D.J. James
Something seems to be up with Kyle Hendricks. In the past, Hendricks was a reliable mid-rotation arm who kept hard contact and walks to a minimum. He also almost always kept the ball on the ground.
In two appearances this season, Hendricks ranks in the middle of the pack in groundball rate while walking more batters than he has in years past.
The Padres have a decent enough lineup to put up a crooked number on Hendricks and get to a relatively weak Cubs bullpen.
In 2023, the Padres had seven bats with an xwOBA over .310. They added Jackson Merrill into the mix, and Ha-Seong Kim was right outside that range. Thus far, the Padres have an 18.7% strikeout rate off righties in 321 plate appearances.
Lastly, the Cubs have a pretty weak bullpen, Julian Merryweather is on the Injured List, and Monday’s blown 8-0 lead pretty much displayed why. Adbert Alzolay has a nice breaking ball, and Héctor Neris and Mark Leiter Jr. have been around the block.
They should stabilize, but if San Diego pushes Hendricks out early, the weaker part of the Cubs’ bullpen will yield some hits.
Take the Padres team total in this game to over five.
Pick: Padres Team Total Over 4 (Play to 5)
Brewers vs. Reds
By Cody Goggin
Hunter Greene has long had some of the best stuff in the league, and it’s just been a matter of reining that in. We're still early in the season, but I believe it looks like he may be reaching his potential.
The former second-overall pick leads the league with a 141 Stuff+ this season. This isn’t entirely shocking, as he ranked fifth among pitchers who threw 100-plus innings last year as well.
The third-year pitcher currently sports a 2.53 ERA on the year with an xERA of 2.47 and a FIP of 2.76, even with a .308 BABIP against. Greene looks the part of a future ace right now, and I love backing him.
To this point in the season, Greene has struck out 13 batters in 10.2 innings against the Mets and Nationals. Both of these teams have a lower strikeout rate than the Brewers. Milwaukee isn’t a huge strikeout team, but it ranks 17th in the league with a 22.8 K%.
My model projects Greene for 7.8 strikeouts today with a median of 8, so I certainly see an edge with his current total of 7.5 at plus-money. This line was actually set at 6.5 with -155 odds when I started writing this piece but has moved since.
I still like taking this over at 7.5 strikeouts and would take it down to +105, as my model lists the fair price at -109.
Pick: Hunter Greene Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+115 | Play to +105)
Marlins vs. Yankees
Trying to cement a spot in a poor Marlins rotation, Ryan Weathers hasn't pitched very deep in either of his starts this season.
In 32 career starts, he’s reached the sixth inning only three times, and in his two starts this season — both losses — he’s gone four and five innings.
Opposing hitters have had a consistently high exit velocity against him, with a 19.2% barrel rate and a .381 xwOBA.
On top of that, he’s striking out batters at just an 8% clip with his favorite pitch (fastball), and hitters have a .429 average against it.
Marcus Stroman, who takes the mound for the Yankees, has had a couple of good starts this season, with a 3.09 xERA and a 0.83 WHIP over 12 total innings.
The Marlins shouldn’t present much of a challenge for Stroman. While they lead the entire league in swing percentage, it hasn’t resulted in getting on base very often (.270 OBP).
Miami represents an excellent matchup for Stroman because it has the highest groundball rate in the league, and the Yankees right-hander boasts a groundball outs rate of 57.4%.
While Stroman has a positive pitching run value of seven, Weathers comes in at -17.
The Marlins' 3-2 loss to the Yankees on Tuesday improved their MLB-worst run-line record to 2-11, so let's fade them again.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-105)
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