MLB Best Bets: Expert Picks & Predictions Sunday (April 28)
The MLB regular season continues with a jam packed 15-game slate this Sunday.
Our baseball experts have locked in picks for three of today's matchups featuring predictions for Royals vs. Tigers, Twins vs. Angels, and Diamondbacks vs. Cubs.
Read below for our MLB best bets for Sunday, April 28.
MLB Best Bets for Sunday, April 28
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 1:40 p.m. | ||
| 4:07 p.m. | ||
| 4:10 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Royals vs. Tigers
Michael Wacha is someone who has pretty drastically over-performed his expected metrics for the last threeyears. He's posted an ERA below 3.4 in both 2022 and 2023, but his expected ERA has been above 4.2 in both seasons. This season he is at a 3.85 xERA, but he's not someone who brings high velocity and his pitch arsenal is well below the major-league average, having a Stuff+ rating of 89. His 3.85 xERA also includes two of his five starts on the season coming against the White Sox.
The Tigers haven't set the world on fire against right handed pitching since the beginning of 2023, but Wacha is main go to pitch is a changeup and the Tigers are above the MLB average in terms of xwOBA against right handed changeups.
Tarik Skubal is one of the best young pitchers in baseball and after his start to the season has the second best odds to win the AL Cy Young behind Corbin Burnes. Skubal so far has posted a 2.12 xERA and the reason he is so good is because he has complete command over his entire pitch arsenal.
Skubal has 26.8% K/BB ratio, which is the third best mark in baseball and it's because of his fastball and changeup. His fastball averages 96 mph and has a Stuff+ rating of 114. His changeup is elite though because of how many swings and misses he gets with it. Skubal has 49.3% whiff rate on his changeup when throwing it outside the zone and 43.8% of the time his changeup ends in a called strike or a whiff, which is the best mark in baseball, per PitcherList.
The Royals have been well below average against left handed pitching, as they only have a 90 wRC+ since the beginning of last season.
Additionally, the Royals bullpen has widely overperformed to begin the season — their ERA is 3.23, but their xFIP is at 4.66, which is the third highest in baseball.
I have Skubal and the Tigers projected at -182, so I like the value on Detroit at -150.
Pick: Tigers ML (-150)
Twins vs. Angels
By Kyle Hunter
Pablo Lopez has a 4.39 ERA but a solid 3.57 FIP and a 3.13 xFIP on the season thus far. Lopez has a tremendous history against this Angels lineup. The Angels lineup has a .091 average and a .131 weighted on base percentage against Lopez in 48 plate appearances.
Reid Detmers has consistently been much better in the first half of the season than the second half throughout his career. He has been great all year up until a shaky start last time out against the Orioles. Baltimore has been hitting extremely well so I won't make too much of that. Detmers has good swing-and-miss stuff.
Dan Merzel is the umpire here and he has a very high strikeout percentage in his career. The under is 5-1 in his six games behind the plate this year.
Take the under.
Pick: Under 8 (-105)
Diamondbacks vs. Mariners
This has been a very good stretch over the past couple of weeks by the Mariners, who have won 9-of-11 and pulled into first place in the AL West as they look to complete the weekend sweep of the D-backs at T-Mobile Park.
Seattle's pitching has been very good the past two weeks, with only two runs allowed across the first two of this series vs. Arizona, and a mere 19 runs across the past 11 games.
Sunday's starter Logan Gilbert was been especially good in recent efforts, allowing just two runs and 10 hits across his last 21 IP (covering three starts), an 0.86 ERA, with 20 Ks and only six walks during that span.
Note the D-backs have dropped the last four starts made by Brandon Pfaadt. Take Seattle on the run line.
Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+164)
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
