MLB Best Bets Today | Picks, Odds for Brewers vs Mets, Twins vs Braves & More
Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Twins pitcher Joe Ryan.
- Tuesday's MLB slate features a full schedule of games.
- Our staff came through with four best bets, including picks for Twins vs. Braves and Brewers vs. Mets.
- Check out odds, picks and all four of our best bets for today's MLB slate below.
After a light Monday slate, MLB bounces back with a full 15-game schedule tonight.
Our writers were prepared for the uptick in games and came through with four Tuesday best bets, including picks for Orioles vs. Reds, Brewers vs. Mets and Twins vs. Braves.
Read on for all four MLB best bets for Tuesday — and be sure to check out the rest of our MLB betting coverage.
Tuesday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Tuesday night's slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Orioles vs. Reds
By Nick Shlain
One of my favorite bets on the slate for Tuesday is Baltimore Orioles pitcher Tyler Wells to go over 5.5 strikeouts at -112 at FanDuel.
Wells has a matchup with the hot new team on the block: the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds won 12 games in a row before losing their last three.
Wells has gone over this number in seven of his last eight starts, and this is a particularly good matchup for him to record strikeouts given his success against left-handed hitters. He has a 29% strikeout percentage against lefties this year compared to just a 23% strikeout percentage against right-handers this year.
Cincinnati’s projected lineup has combined for just a 22% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this year, but most of its hitters are left-handed. With five left-handed hitters in the Reds’ projected lineup, Wells should hit this over as he’s done on a consistent basis recently.
Brewers vs. Mets
By D.J. James
Julio Teherán was a nice addition to the Brewers’ rotation, looking like he did in the earlier part of his career with the Braves. He owns a 1.53 ERA against a 3.29 xERA, so regression is in the fold, but those expected numbers are still solid.
He will face David Peterson and the struggling Mets on Tuesday. The Mets are just stretched in their rotation.
Peterson hasn't pitched since mid-May, and he looked horrid before landing in Triple-A. At the MLB level, he held an 8.08 ERA against a 5.16 xERA. His average exit velocity sat at 89.8 MPH, while his barrel rate came in at nearly 10%. Although his strikeout and walk rates were slightly above average, he's clearly the worse pitcher between these two.
Hitting-wise, Milwaukee hasn't been as bad against lefties like Peterson. It owns a 99 wRC+ off of southpaws in June, paired with a 9.2% walk rate. The Brewers boast six bats with an xwOBA of over .335 against lefties on the season, which should be more than enough to get to Peterson early and force the bullpen into the game.
In relief, New York has been about as bad, if not worse, than the Brewers in June. New York owns a 4.77 xFIP against Milwaukee’s 4.71. This basically provides neither team with an edge.
That said, since Peterson is so much worse than Teherán, the Brewers should be at least even in this game. Play them to -110.
Twins vs. Braves
Bryce Elder is a pitcher I'm looking to fade on a regular basis. He’s one of the biggest overperformers in Major League Baseball with his ERA at 2.40 and his expected ERA over a full run higher at 3.77.
When digging into his Statcast metrics, it doesn’t look great either. Elder ranks below the 30th percentile in both average exit velocity allowed and hard-hit rate allowed. His average velocity and spin rates are also some of the lowest among qualified starting pitchers.
Then there’s the fact that he has the second-worst Stuff+ rating among qualified starting pitchers at 74. His sinker and slider, which are his two main pitches, both have a Stuff+ rating below 85.
Joe Ryan has had a stellar season for the Twins, posting a 2.44 xERA with one of the lowest BB/9 rates in baseball at 1.44.
Unlike Elder, Ryan actually has good stuff. Ryan owns a Stuff+ rating of 104 with a Pitching+ rating of 106. With that great stuff, Ryan is allowing one of the lowest xwOBAs in baseball at .247 thanks to his dominance with his fastball and split-finger.
With the Twins having a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup, I don’t think they should be underdogs for the first five innings.
Twins vs. Braves
Joe Ryan has established himself as a top-10 pitcher in all of baseball in 2023 behind improved fastball velocity and a new effective splitter. The Twins ace owns a 27% strikeout rate thus far in 2023 and pitches in Atlanta — one of the more strikeout-friendly environments in all of baseball — tonight.
Even if you use a conservative base strikeout rate for Ryan of 25% — his 2022 percentage — the Truist Park factor gets you to a 27.25% strikeout rate against an average lineup. Ryan averages 24.4 batters faced in 2023, which would project for 6.6 strikeouts against an average MLB lineup.
The Braves have struck out less than average thus far in 2023, but underlying projections show them to be about an average lineup in terms of strikeouts going forward.
Every projection system sees Ryan over 9.5 K/9 for the rest of the season. Given that, I'm surprised to see his strikeout projection this low. I'd bet over 5.5 Ks at -125 or better.