MLB Best Bets Today | Picks, Predictions, Odds for Astros vs Rangers ALCS Game 3
Bob Levey/Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Bregman, Jose Abreu, Jeremy Pena, Jose Altuve
The Texas Rangers are favored on the moneyline against the Houston Astros in Game 3 of the ALCS on Wednesday. The Rangers are around -130 on the moneyline, while the Astros are short underdogs in the +110 range.
Texas is looking to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the series after stunning the rival Astros in the first two games at Minute Maid Park in Houston. A win on Wednesday would put the Rangers one win away from their first World Series appearance since 2011.
Here are our Astros vs. Rangers best bets today, including moneyline, over/under, props and more.
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Astros vs. Rangers Game 3 Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 9.5 +100o / -122u | +110 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 9.5 +100o / -122u | -130 |
MLB Best Bets
By D.J. James
Yordan Alvarez is almost an automatic extra-base hit in the postseason, with an almost unbelievable wRC+ of .347, small sample size be damned. He's slugging 1.261 with an on-base percentage of .440.
The Astros have needed every bit of Alvarez's stick to stay in games. The only other hitter with positive offensive stats is Michael Brantley. Chas McCormick has a 75 wRC+. Jeremy Peña has a 47 wRC+. José Altuve, typically a postseason Astros legend, only has a 24 wRC+. Kyle Tucker is at 5.
Max Scherzer has not thrown since September 16, so even though he is a future Hall of Famer, he may struggle on his first trip back to the mound. Given the fact that Scherzer may not go deep in the game and this is the first of potentially three straight days of games for the Rangers, we could see someone like the also-just-returned Jon Gray in long relief.
Regardless, the Texas bullpen has a collective 4.87 xFIP, while they are walking 12.8% of batters.
In the right situation, the Rangers could (and probably should) pitch around Alvarez given his threat and the slumping hitters around him.
I would take Alvarez over 1.5 walks at -135 or better.
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By Tony Sartori
I am taking the alternate Under here as 8.5 is available at +128 via FanDuel. That's the number where I find the most value, but I think this total is also playable at nine if you find it at -105 or shorter.
Both offenses can obviously explode at any time, but this pitchers' duel could quell even the strongest of lineups in a similar fashion to what we saw in Game 1 of this series.
Right-hander Max Scherzer makes his long-awaited return to the mound after missing the past month due to a muscle strain, and if there is anyone who can pick up right where he left off, it is the future first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Scherzer posted a 13-6 record with a 3.77 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 27 starts this season. His underlying metrics were even stronger, posting a 3.28 xERA and .205 xBA.
While it was a bit of a tumultuous season for Cristian Javier, he is coming off a strong start against the Minnesota Twins in the ALDS, a game in which he tossed five shutout innings while allowing just one hit.
Dating back to the regular season, Javier is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over his past five starts. Eight or fewer total runs were scored in three of those five outings.
Meanwhile, I trust both bullpens to limit the damage as well. There have now been eight or fewer total runs scored in 10 of Texas' past 12 games and in seven of Houston's past 12.
Cristian Javier struggled through most of the regular season as his fastball vertical break dipped, his strikeout rate plummeted and his ERA ballooned up near 5.00. Javier's Stuff+ ratings on both his fastball and slider dropped closer to league average throughout the summer, but they started to trend up back toward the end of the regular season.
In his first playoff start against Minnesota, Javier had a season high in his slider RPM and his fastball Stuff+ was above 110.
Given that Javier really has only two pitches, small changes in their movement creates a massive difference in his ability to get through a lineup multiple times. Javier is trending upward as the postseason nears its conclusion. Meanwhile, there are real questions about what the Rangers will get from Max Scherzer on Wednesday.
Scherzer is expected to be on a pitch count, but we don't know if his stuff or command will be diminished coming back from the long layoff. He gave up seven runs to this same Astros lineup just before he went on the injured list.
Given the uncertainty in projecting Scherzer, the dominance of the Houston bullpen and Javier's trend line, I'd bet Houston at any underdog price to make this a series.
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Some of the props on Max Scherzer are really interesting, especially his pitching outs of 12.5. It has already come out that Scherzer is going to be on a pitch count of between 65-70 pitches, so let’s do some math.
Scherzer this season averaged 16.1 pitches per inning, so if we take 70 divided by 16.1, we get 4.35 innings if everything goes to plan.
That doesn’t take into account though that the Astros have the fourth-highest walk rate against right-handed pitching and the fifth-lowest whiff rate in baseball.
The Astros were pretty quiet in the first two games, but Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi are very different pitchers from Scherzer.
Montgomery and Eovaldi utilize a lot of pitches that are designed to be down in the zone like changeup, sinker, and splitter, while Scherzer is very much a fastball/slider pitcher. The Astros against right-handed fastballs and sliders this season had a +16.67 run value, which was sixth in baseball.
Scherzer had pitched well all season, putting up a 3.28 xERA, but in the month of September when the injury started to bother him, his xFIP ballooned up to 4.80. His K/9 rate went from 11.74 in August to 8.16 in September.
It’s going to take a lot of things to go right for Scherzer to pitch into the fifth inning on a 65-70 pitch count, so I like the value on his Pitching Outs Under 12.5.
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