MLB Best Bets, Picks: 2 Expert Predictions for Wednesday, May 29

MLB Best Bets, Picks: 2 Expert Predictions for Wednesday, May 29 article feature image
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Via Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: George Kirby #68 of the Seattle Mariners pitches against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park on May 24, 2024 in Washington, DC.

MLB Best Bets, Picks

GameTime (ET)Pick
4:10 p.m.
9:40 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

The MLB features a packed slate of 16 games on Wednesday as all 30 teams will be in action, including a doubleheader between the Pirates and Tigers.

Our MLB betting experts D.J. James and Tony Sartori have best bets ready for Marlins vs. Padres and Astros vs. Mariners.

Find their MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, May 29 below.


Marlins vs. Padres

Wednesday, May 29
4:10 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Under 7.5 (-120)

By Tony Sartori

Left-hander Braxton Garrett takes the mound for Miami, and he should be a good fade candidate. Garrett made his season debut midway through May and struggled mightily in his first two starts as he readjusted following a shoulder injury.

However, I believe it is safe to say he is now settled in because he is coming off a complete-game shutout performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks. There were just three total runs scored in that game.

We could see a similarly low-scoring outing on Wednesday because the Marlins rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases. These woes at the dish are likely to continue against right-hander Yu Darvish, who is 4-2 through 10 starts this season with a commanding 3.04 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.

Darvish's underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely, given that he ranks in the 62nd percentile or higher in xERA, xBA and Barrel Rate.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)



Astros vs. Mariners

Wednesday, May 29
9:40 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Mariners Moneyline -115

By D.J. James

Hunter Brown has been recipient of some poor fortune, but that does not mean he has been good by any means. His Ground-ball Rate and Barrel Rate are above average.

However, that is where the good news ends. His Walk Rate ranks in the 16th percentile, and his ERA is over 7.00, with an xERA a touch under 4.50. He also does not miss many bats, so there are not many positives for the Houston Astros’ starter.

Hie will face George Kirby and the Seattle Mariners. Kirby excels at inducing weak contact and can also miss some bats. The key here is that he walks only 2.4% of batters, which allows him to pitch deep into the game. All in all, there is a reason why his xERA is under 4.00.

The Astros have hit righties well lately with a 118 wRC+ and sub-20% Strikeout Rate. Seattle strikes out often but has the sticks at the top of the order to contend with Houston. They may have a 98 wRC+ off of righties this month, but Brown is much worse than Kirby,

Both bullpens are comparable. Houston has a 3.90 xFIP in May, while the Mariners are at 4.10. The kicker here is that Kirby should (and likely will) throw much deeper into this game than Brown, who struggles with command. With this being the case, the M’s should get a boost.

Take Seattle to win this rivalry matchup from -115 to -130 on the moneyline.

Pick: Seattle Mariners Moneyline -115



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