MLB Odds & Pick for Mets vs. Phillies: Target the Total in Philadelphia (April 30)

MLB Odds & Pick for Mets vs. Phillies: Target the Total in Philadelphia (April 30) article feature image
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Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Chase Anderson.

  • Marcus Stroman and the New York Mets will face Chase Anderson and the Philladelphia Phillies on Friday night.
  • With Anderson on the mound, BJ Cunningham is expecting to see plenty of runs between the two teams tied atop the NL East standings.
  • Check out Cunningham's full betting preview complete with odds and a betting pick based on his analysis.

Mets vs. Phillies Odds

Mets Odds -148
Phillies Odds +128
Over/Under 8 (-117 / -105)
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds as of Friday morning and via DraftKings.

The Mets and Phillies meet again for a weekend series with Philadelphia currently tied atop the NL East standings.

The Mets dropped two games against Boston in the middle of the week, and along with it, their lead in the NL East. They swept the Phillies the last time these two teams met for a series, so they’ll look to keep the win streak against Philadelphia going on Friday with Marcus Stroman on the mound.

Philadelphia took two out of three from St. Louis earlier this week to move into a three-way tie atop the NL East standings. It’ll send Chase Anderson to the mound in hopes he can keep the Phillies afloat despite a terrible start to the season.

Offensive Matchup

New York Mets

In 2020, the Mets had one of the best offenses in baseball over the second half of the 2020 season. New York led MLB with a .272 average and was third in wOBA and wRC+, and it should be even better this season with the addition of Francisco Lindor.

However, the Mets have gotten off to a slow start through their first 19 games, putting up only a .300 wOBA and 93 wRC+. They really struggled against the Red Sox this week, scoring one lone run in the two-game series.

Most of New York’s success last season came against right-handed pitching. The Mets were third in MLB with a .353 wOBA and 125 wRC+ against righties. This season, they’ve somewhat struggled versus right-handed pitching with only a .293 wOBA. However, since Anderson is an average right-hander, I expect the Mets’ lineup will get to him.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies lineup has been really average against right-handed pitching to begin 2021. They have only a .296 wOBA and 87 wRC+, which is 17th in MLB.

That’s a big drop-off from last season when the Phillies were eighth in wOBA against righties. They kept their entire lineup together from last season, so they should improve as the season goes on.

The Phillies have struggled versus just about every pitch type this season except for changeups, so they are likely going to have a difficult matchup against Stroman.


Starting Pitching Matchup

Marcus Stroman vs. Chase Anderson

2021 ZIPS Projected Stats (via Fangraphs)

 

Mets Starting Pitcher

Marcus Stroman, RHP

2019 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Stroman didn’t pitch at all in 2020, but he is still one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.

Now that he’s on the Mets, he gets a tad overshadowed by Jacob deGrom, but in 2019, he posted an xERA and xFIP under four.

The main reason Stroman is so effective is that he gets a ton of ground balls. Before joining the Mets, Stroman put together four straight seasons of a ground ball rate above 60%, which means his sinker/cutter/slider combination consistently stays down in the zone.

Stroman has made some changes to his arsenal this season, eliminating his curveball and changeup that he barely threw and added a split-finger, which is pretty filthy.

Marcus Stroman's new split change is filthy 🤢 (via @PitchingNinja) pic.twitter.com/THy68Kdh4y

— Baseball Bros (@BaseballBros) March 2, 2021

Stroman has been very effective through his first five starts, allowing only six earned runs and five walks in over 24 innings pitched. He’ll have a good matchup against a Phillies lineup that is struggling against righties and every single pitch in his arsenal.

Phillies Starting Pitcher

Chase Anderson, RHP

2020 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Chase Anderson really struggled in 2020 with the Blue Jays, posting a 7.02 ERA, but he was a tad unlucky as his xFIP was all the way down at 4.09.

However, Anderson desperately struggled with his fastball, allowing a .532 to opponents. That issue hasn’t been fixed since he arrived in Philadelphia, as he is still allowing a wOBA over .400 on it in 2021.

Anderson’s first two starts of the season came against the Mets and he wasn’t very effective, giving up five runs in nine innings pitched. He’ll likely have another difficult matchup against a Mets lineup that has hit righties and fastballs very well in 2020.

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Bullpen/Defensive Matchup

The biggest reason the Mets didn’t have much success last season was their bullpen.

They made some upgrades through trades and offseason signings while keeping some of their main relievers. So far, the Mets bullpen has posted a 3.83 ERA and 3.02 xFIP, which is much better than 2020. They will have the advantage in the later innings in this series.

The Phillies had the worst bullpen in MLB by many different metrics in 2020.

However, they’ve done a complete turnaround so far this season, as they rank inside the top 10 in xFIP through the first part of the season. They will need to keep that up on Friday night because they’re likely going to be called on early with Anderson on the mound.

Mets-Phillies Pick

With how good these two lineups are and the fantastic matchup the Mets have versus Anderson, I think this is going to be a high-scoring affair.

If New York can get into the Phillies bullpen early, they should face a lot of their back-end pitchers, giving them a good shot at opening this game up.

Therefore, I am going to back over 8 runs at -117 and would play it up to -120.

Pick: Over 8 (-117)

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