Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Tuesday, Sept. 15)
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images. Pictured: Nelson Cruz.
- Following a loss to Chicago on Monday night, Minnesota opened as +106 underdogs for Tuesday's rematch against the White Sox.
- The Twins moneyline has crept as high as +117 at some books, but can you trust them against Dane Dunning on the hill?
- BJ Cunningham breaks down Tuesday's matchup and makes the case why Minnesota deserves to be the favorite on Tuesday.
Twins vs. White Sox Odds
|Twins Odds||+117 [Bet Now]|
|White Sox Odds||-136 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||9 (-112/-107) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||Tuesday, 8:10 p.m. ET|
The White Sox will look to extend their two-game lead in the AL Central as they send Dane Dunning to the mound to face Randy Dobnak on Tuesday. This game is crucial for the Twins, as they cannot afford to fall three games behind the White Sox with only two weeks left in the season.
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Advanced Stats Glossary
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.
BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.
Despite their bats staying quiet last night, the Twins have been crushing the ball over the past 12 games. They’ve accumulated a .352 wOBA and 114 wRC+, the latter of which ranks fifth in MLB. The Twins have done most of their damage against right-handed pitching, ranking sixth in MLB in wOBA (.337) against righties. Nelson Cruz has been the surprising leader of the Twins offense, as the 40-year-old has a .441 wOBA, including 15 home runs and 31 RBIs.
The Twins have mainly been successful versus fastballs and sinkers this season, which are Dunning’s main two pitches, so they should have a good matchup on Monday night.
Twins Probable Starter
Randy Dobnak, RHP
Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)
Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Randy Dobnak has been solid in 2020, posting a 3.61 ERA and 4.40 xFIP. He’s mainly a sinker-ball pitcher and has posted a 62.5% ground ball rate, which is a good indicator that his sinker has been effective.
Dobnak’s not going to fool anybody. His stuff isn’t overpowering, but he does a really good job with location. His slider notwithstanding, none of his pitches garners a high whiff rate, but he’s been effective with them. His slider and changeup have been his best two pitches by far, allowing a combined .207 average to opponents this season.
Chicago has been crushing sinkers this season, so I’d expect Dobnak to feature his changeup and slider a lot tonight.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have been pretty average offensively as of late, checking in with a .334 wOBA and 110 wRC+. Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu have led Chicago offensively, as they both have a wOBA above .400. The key to Chicago’s offensive success has been its versatility against nearly every pitch type. However, the one pitch the White Sox have struggled with is changeups — and Dobnak has a great one. So, I expect the White Sox to see a steady dose of them tonight.
Chicago has been the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching, but the White Sox have been no slouch against righties either. Chicago ranks ninth against right-handed pitchers in terms of wOBA, so Dobnak will have to be on point tonight.
White Sox Probable Starter
Dane Dunning, RHP
Projected (ZIPS) Stats (via Fangraphs)
Dane Dunning has been incredible through his first four starts in the big leagues, but he’s vastly outperforming his projections. ZIPS has Dunning’s projected ERA at 4.67 and his FIP at 4.74.
Dunning came over from the Nationals in the Adam Eaton trade. He was the 29th overall pick in 2016, but it’s taken him a while to get to the majors. The main reason he was drafted in the first round was his secondary pitches.
Looking at some film on Dunning, his changeup and curveball have fantastic movement that can be effective at the major league level. However, his fastball/sinker has average velocity and not a lot of movement.
He’s been going to his fastball/sinker the most of any pitch, which isn’t ideal against a Minnesota team that has found ample success against that pitch. Dunning is going to have to utilize his secondary pitches a lot on Tuesday in order to effectively deal with the Twins batting lineup.
Both bullpens have been fantastic this season, each ranking in the top-half of MLB in ERA and xFIP. The Twins and White Sox should have all of their main relievers available, so it should be a fascinating matchup in the later innings.
Projections and Pick
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Even though Dunning has been solid through his first few starts in the majors, I think he will come back down to earth tonight. Based on my projections, I think Randy Dobnak and the Twins should be favorites on Tuesday night. Therefore, I am going to bet the Twins at +117 (BetRivers) to even up the series and would bet them up to -115.
Pick: Twins +117 (play up to -115).