MLB Best Bets: 2 Top Picks for Diamondbacks vs. Brewers, Giants vs. Padres on Tuesday
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Rodon #16 of the San Francisco Giants.
- We're two games away from postseason baseball, but there's still value to extract from the regular season.
- With a loaded slate of games on tap, our MLB experts have found two games to bet: Diamondbacks-Brewers and Giants-Padres.
- Read on for their analysis and picks in those matchups.
There are just two days left in the MLB regular season, but that doesn't mean the games don't matter to bettors.
The postseason picture is set after the Philadelphia Phillies clinched their first first playoff berth since 2012, but two games featuring three teams that won't be playing in the playoffs — Diamondbacks vs. Brewers and Giants vs. Padres — have caught the eyes of our baseball analysts.
Check out our best bets for Tuesday's slate below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Get the latest BetMGM bonus code for today's game.
Charlie DiSturco: Happy Zac Gallen Day!
This is the perfect spot to back the Diamondbacks. Aside from the pitching edge between Gallen and Eric Lauer, the Brewers were officially eliminated from playoff contention last night.
I snagged this at (-110) with the expectation some of Milwaukee's starters will be rested. The line will continue to move in favor of Arizona, so it's important to get ahead before lineups are released.
Regardless if they still play, the matchup favors the Snakes here. Gallen has been incredible since the All-Star break, posting a 1.27 ERA in 13 starts. Opponents have just a .212 xBA against the right-hander who is posting career bests in walk rate, xSLG and wOBA.
Because he’s on the Diamondbacks, we often get Gallen at a discount. Opposite him is Eric Lauer, who has seen his ERA inch toward 4.00 in the second half of the season.
Lauer is perfect fade material. His barrel rate is over 8 percent and opponents have a .244 xBA and .403 xSLG against the southpaw. Lauer doesn’t really excel in any advanced metric and is prone to being lit up at any time.
Over the last 14 days, we’ve seen Arizona jump up to the 15-20 range in wRC+, wOBA and isolated power. This is a young team that you know will finish the season strong while the same can’t be said for Milwaukee fresh off a heartbreak.
Fade the Brewers in this hangover spot. Snakes ML up to -130.
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Jules Posner: While backing Carlos Rodon on the road against Sean Manaea is far from a lock, the San Francisco Giants have great potential value as underdogs Tuesday night.
Rodon has been much more vulnerable on the road this season than at home, but the overall indicators show that he has experienced some bad luck. He does carry a 3.73 road ERA into Tuesday's match up, but his 2.50 FIP and 3.12 xFIP may mean he's due for positive regression tonight.
Additionally, Rodon threw a complete game where he struck out 12 and only surrendered one earned run his last outing at Petco Park. He's also getting a Padres offense that has been average at home against LHP over the past month.
On the other side Sean Manaea has struggled against the Giants this season. In his three starts against the Giants he's surrendered 9 earned runs and given up three home runs.
Furthermore, the Giants bullpen has been performing better than they have all season following some recent roster turnover.
The Giants' moneyline could still be bet at +135 on some books, but they should be the play as long as they're in plus money.