MLB Expert Picks Today | Best Bets For Diamondbacks vs Brewers, Phillies vs Astros (Monday, October 3)
Casey Sykes/Getty Images. Pictured: The Phillies dugout.
We've officially entered the end game for the MLB regular season. By Wednesday, the cards will all have been dealt and the playoff field will be set.
Some key playoff positioning could be determined tonight, as the Phillies will look to clinch their first playoff berth since 2012 against the Astros. The Brewers, on the other hand, need a win and a Phillies loss to keep their slim hopes alive. They host the Diamondbacks.
Those two games, coincidentally, are ones our analysts have circled. Here are our best bets from Monday night's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Jules Posner: Brandon Woodruff gets the ball for the Brewers as they look to keep their narrow hopes of a playoff berth alive. The Diamondbacks have an array of talented young left-handed hitters in their lineup, however Woodruff, has dominated LHH at home this season.
So far this season, Woodruff has held LHH to a .176 BAA, with a 1.49 FIP and a 1.74 xFIP at home this season. This bodes well for the Brewers in Monday night's matchup.
The Brewers also get to face Diamondbacks' rookie Tommy Henry. Henry has struggled, but he's had a particularly hard time on the road this season, posting a 5.95 ERA, a 6.47 FIP, and a 6.01 xFIP.
The Brewers have a 117 wRC+ against LHP at home past 30 days. Even if their offense might be due for regression due to a very high BABIP, Henry doesn't seem like the type of pitcher they'd regress against.
The Brewers have huge edges in every facet of this matchup, plus they are still fighting for a playoff spot. Their run line opened at -105, but moved to -110 overnight. It should be played to -130 or better.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros
Charlie DiSturco: I’ve been one of the biggest supporters of Aaron Nola this season and think he’s one of the most underrated pitchers in the National League. With the Phillies magic number down to one, Nola takes the mound against Lance McCullers Jr. and a Houston Astros team that already has home-field advantage locked up through the AL playoffs.
Despite a 3.36 ERA, Nola’s xFIP and xERA are right around 2.80. He’s suffered a bit of misfortune throughout the season, but advanced metrics-wise, has been dominant. He has a .213 xBA and a sub-32 percent hard-hit rate, which ranks in the 92nd percentile of MLB pitchers.
Nola doesn’t walk many batters, induces soft contact and has a near 30-percent strikeout rate. That’s the perfect recipe for success in 2022.
He matches up with McCullers, who has been a bit lucky in his seven starts since returning from the injured list. His ERA sits at 2.38, but expected indicators are over a run higher in the mid-to-high 3s.
McCullers does have a .222 xBA, but his walk rate is north of 12 percent and the right-hander has an unsustainable 86 percent left on base rate. That number should negatively regress toward his career average of 74.2.
The Phillies' offense also ranks top 10 in wRC+ over the last 14 days while the Astros are down at 18. They also may rest some starters with the playoffs looming and nothing to play, another edge Philadelphia could hold, as they’re still playing for the postseason.
The edge between starting pitchers also favors Nola and as an underdog, I love this spot. Back the Phillies in the first five innings up to -115.
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