Saturday sees a 17-game slate with two double-headers, and that means plenty of MLB action, starting at 1:05 p.m. ET with Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1 and finishing at 10:15 p.m. ET with Orioles vs Athletics.
That gives us plenty to choose from as I bring you my home run picks for today.
Read on for my 5 MLB Home Run Picks Today.
MLB Home Runs Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:20 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 10:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Reds vs Cubs
The spot for the Cubs righties today is a bit too good to pass up. Abbott is a gas can for righty power, allowing a 1.45 HR/9 in his career.
Abbott has been better at suppressing power this season, but he's due for some negative regression and grades out as a plus matchup for righty power. The weather over in CHC is great for hitting today with temps in the low 80s and wind blowing out at 10 MPH.
I have the true odds on Suzuki around +400, making this a good EV bet.
Pick: Seiya Suzuki 1+ Home Runs (+425)
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Royals vs Guardians
The odds are far too high for Vinnie today to pass up.
The matchup is lefty/lefty, but Griffin has been a plus matchup for lefty power this season with a 1.54 HR/9. The ballpark is average for power, and the weather is slightly above average for hitting.
I have the true odds on Vinnie under +700, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Vinnie Pasquantino 1+ Home Runs (+950)
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Padres vs Rays
The odds are a bit too high today for Manny given the spot.
Martinez hasn't given up a ton of bombs to righties this season, but he's due for some massive regression with a low 6.8% HR/FB rate.
He grades out as a plus matchup for righty power, and I have the true odds on Manny around +420, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Manny Machado o0.5 Home Runs (+475)
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Rockies vs Braves
Perez is getting up there in years, but despite being a solid ground ball pitcher, he is due for some heavy HR regression vs. righties and grades out as a plus matchup for righty power.
Despite the wind blowing in slightly in ATL, the weather is a plus for power with temps in the high 80s and good humidity.
Goodman is one of the best HR hitters in the league, and I have the true odds around +320 today, making this a good EV bet.
Pick: Hunter Goodman 1+ Home Runs (+356)
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Orioles vs Athletics
The odds might be low today, but they aren't low enough.
Perkins is a well-above-average matchup for righty power, allowing a large 1.62 HR/9. The ballpark is one of the best in the league for power, and the weather is good for hitting today with temps in the low 80s and wind blowing out at 8 MPH.
I have the true odds around +220, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Pete Alonso o0.5 Home Runs (+260)
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