For Friday, May 16, I'm on four MLB home run props: Andrew Vaughn (against the Cubs), James Wood (against the Orioles), Pete Alonso (against the Yankees) and Cal Raleigh (against the Padres).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Friday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Friday, May 16
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 2:20 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for May 16
Andrew Vaughn (+290)
at Cubs (SP: RHP Cade Horton)
These odds are low, but the spot is way too good to pass up.
The wind will be blowing out like crazy today at Wrigley Field (20 mph), and temperatures are in the 80s.
Wrigley Field is probably the most wind-receptive ballpark in the league, so the ball is going to be flying.
Cubs starter Cade Horton grades out as an above-average matchup for right-handed power hitters; he also had some heavy fly-ball splits during his time in the minors.
Andrew Vaughn has some decent pop, and while he hasn't been great this season, the fly-ball and hard-contact numbers are good this season.
I have the true odds here around +250.
James Wood (+600)
at Orioles (SP: LHP Cade Povich)
The weather may be an issue today in Baltimore, but these odds on James Wood are too good to pass on.
Camden Yards is one of the best in the league for lefty power, and the matchup is good.
Orioles starter Cade Povich is a lefty, but he's pretty splits-neutral. He hasn't allowed a ton of power to lefties in his short career, but he grades out as a big plus matchup for lefty power, with a 49.5% fly-ball rate and a low K rate.
I have the true odds here around +475.
Pete Alonso (+350)
at Yankees (SP: LHP Carlos Rodon)
It's a great spot for Pete Alonso today, and the odds haven't adjusted nearly enough.
Carlos Rodon has looked a little better this season, but he's still been a plus matchup for right-handed power hitters.
Alonso is one of the best power hitters in the league and gets a decent ballpark upgrade with good hitting weather.
I have the true odds here under +300.
Cal Raleigh (+450)
at Padres (SP: RHP Stephen Kolek)
The matchup isn't great, but the odds more than make up for it.
Padres right-hander Stephen Kolek grades out as a slightly below-average matchup for lefty power, but Raleigh has been one of the best hitters in the league this season.
Raleigh has 13 home runs on the season to go along with a 22.2% barrel rate and heavy fly-ball numbers.
I have the true odds here nearly 100 points lower.
