Sixteen games are on the Major League Baseball schedule for Tuesday, May 6, and naturally I'm all over the MLB home run props market.
I've found value on four players who could hit a home run tonight: Pete Alonso (against the Diamondbacks), Julio Rodriguez (against the Athletics), James Wood (against the Guardians) and Royce Lewis (against the Orioles.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay picks for Tuesday night.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds Today — 5/3
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:35 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
| 9:40 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for May 3
James Wood Home Run (+480)
vs. Guardians (SP: RHP Luis L. Ortiz)
I loved James Wood in this spot yesterday before the postponement, and still I love him today.
The Guardians' Luis L. Ortiz isn't a bad pitcher, but he has massive splits in his career when it comes to power, allowing 0.66 HR/9 to righties but 1.71 HR/9 to lefties.
Wood is a great power bat, and when this game plays, it should be decently hot and humid.
I have the true odds here under +400, making this a great bet.
Royce Lewis Home Run (+520)
vs. Orioles (SP: LHP Cade Povich)
Royce Lewis could be back in our lives today, and he's in a fantastic spot to go yard.
Lewis has been one of the best power bats in the league when healthy, and he should be good to go today after getting activated from the IL.
He gets a matchup against the Orioles' Cade Povich, who has been absolutely crushed by righties, giving up 1.83 HR/9 in his career despite playing in a ballpark that suppresses righty power.
Povich is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, so if Lewis gets the ball in the air, it has a good chance of leaving the park.
I have the true odds here 100 points lower.
Pete Alonso Home Run (+370)
at Diamondbacks (SP: RHP Zac Gallen)
Pete Alonso is having a career year this season. He's in an average spot tonight, but is priced a little high.
Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen isn't a bad pitcher and has been an average matchup for righty power, but Alonso is just far too good to be priced at these odds.
Alonso has a massive 20.8% barrel% on the season to go along with a high 59.4% hard-hit rate. He's found his rookie-season form — when he hit 53 HRs — and he should be priced around +300 in this spot.
Julio Rodriguez Home Run (+400)
at Athletics (SP: LHP Jeffrey Springs)
Julio Rodriguez is off to a slow start to the season, but the power has been there recently.
Sutter Health Park is one of the best ballparks in the league for power, and the weather should be great, with temperatures in the low-80s during game time and winds blowing out to center.
Athletics starter Jeffrey Springs has allowed an above-average 1.22 HR/9 in his career, but he has been playing in some of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks during that time and has a high 43.1% career fly-ball rate to righties.
I have the true odds here around +330.
