MLB NRFI Odds, Picks: Aces Joe Musgrove, Corbin Burnes Have Solid First-Inning Track Records (Friday, June 3)
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes
Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.
Padres vs. Brewers — No Runs First Inning (-154)
| Matchup | Padres (Musgrove) vs. Brewers (Burnes) |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Corbin Burnes is a NRFI machine. Since the start of the 2020 season, he is 40-8 to the NRFI. This is including his outstanding 9-1 NRFI start to 2022. Today, we will get Burnes at home which is his better NRFI home/road split at 21-2. In 37 first inning batters, Burnes holds a 0.90 ERA and has only issued two walks.
Burnes is 1-0 to the NRFI against the Padres when at home in his career. Here is how he has fared in the matchups.
- Jake Cronenworth: 1-for-9
- Trent Grisham: 0-for-5
- Wil Myers: 0-for-9
- Ha-Seong Kim: 0-for-4
- Manny Machado: 2-for-4
Padres power hitters Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado in their last seven days are hitting for a combined 8-for-44. (.181)
Over the past 21 days in the first inning when on the road, the Padres are just 8-for-47, good for a .170 average. In that same time span, they are also dead-last in MLB with 14 strikeouts. More concerning over this span is that they managed to have the 30th-ranked hard-hit rate in the first inning at 23.5%.
Joe Musgrove is off to a great NRFI start in 2022 as well, going 7-2. This now makes Musgrove 31-9 since the start of the 2021 season. When facing hitters the first time through the lineup, Musgrove is holding them to a respectable .200 average. Musgrove also owns leadoff hitters, holding them to a lousy .138 average.
Here is how the Brewers' hitters match up against Musgrove who is 2-0 to the NRFI against them in his career.
- Kolten Wong: 3-for-19
- Andrew McCutchen: 1-for-8
- Christian Yelich: 5-for-18
- Keston Hiura: 4-for-11
The Brewers are in one of the most aggressive slumps we have seen in the last seven days as well:
- Christian Yelich: 3-for-26
- Andrew McCutchen: 1-for-31
- Luis Urias: 5-for-27
Today's projected Nos. 1, 3, 4 hitters in the last seven days have hit for a combined 9-for-84 for an awful .107 average.
The woes don’t stop there for this Brewers team. Over the last 21 days, they are ranked 29th in first inning average at .170 with over 80 plate appearances.
Look for Burnes and Musgrove to roll in the first inning. Take the NRFI between the Padres and the Brewers.
As always, six outs to glory…
Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.
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