MLB NRFI Odds, Picks: Value on Logan Webb, Kyle Gibson In First Inning (Monday, May 30)
Adam Hagy/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Gibson.
Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.
Giants vs. Phillies No Runs First Inning (-104)
|Matchup||Giants (Webb) vs. Tigers (Phillies)|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
On Monday, we head to Citizens Bank Park to take an NRFI between two National League teams — the Giants and Phillies.
Logan Webb has had a rocky start to his 2022 NRFI campaign, going 5-4. But going back just one season, his NRFI record becomes significantly better at 26-12, despite the five YRFIs in 2022.
One thing we can take away from Webb’s 2022 first innings is that he doesn’t walk hitters; in 40 first-inning batters faced, he has allowed just three walks.
Webb’s best batting order split comes against leadoff hitters, holding them to just a .167 average.
The Giants starter is 1-0 to the NRFI against the Phillies in a small sample size. Here’s how he matches up against some key Phillies hitters:
- Alec Bohm: 0-for-2
- Jean Segura: 0-for-2
- Rhys Hoskins: 0-for-1
- Bryce Harper: 2-for-2
In the last seven days, Rhys Hoskins — who is projected to bat fifth today — is 4-for-28 and hitting well under a .200 average. Phillies leadoff hitter Kyle Schwarber is in an even more significant slump, going 1-for-23 in the last week.
In the month of May, the Phillies have the 27th-ranked first-inning batting average at .192 with over 110 first-inning plate appearances. They rank one spot worse in MLB with a first-inning hard-hit rate of 21.1%. Not only are they not getting hits, but they aren’t making significant contact with the baseball either.
Kyle Gibson has been a significant pickup for the Phillies since the trade deadline last year.
Gibson has gone 8-1 to the NRFI this season. Today, we will target his home split, which is remarkable. Since 2019 when at home, Gibson is 33-6 in NRFIs.
Another significant split for Gibson is when he pitches the first time through the lineup, as hitters are batting just .190 against him.
Gibson is 2-0 to the NRFI against the Giants. Here’s how he’s fared in the matchup:
- Brandon Crawford: 1-for-7
- Wilmer Flores: 2-for-7
- Mike Yastrzemski: 1-for-3
- Evan Longoria: 4-for-17
- Joc Pederson: 0-for-3
In the last seven days, Darin Ruf is 2-for-19 (.105) and is projected to bat sixth today.
Like the Phillies, the Giants are among the worst first-inning hitting teams in this month. They rank 26th in MLB with a .194 average in over 105 first-inning plate appearances. The Giants also rank 22nd in first-inning hard contact at 29.0%, showing they also struggle to make significant contact early on in games.
Look for these two teams to remain among the worst first-inning teams in the league and for their respective starters to remain undefeated against their opponent.
As always six outs to the glory…
Get all of Shayne Trail’s NRFI/YRFI bets instantly in The Action Network app.
How would you rate this article?
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.