MLB NRFI Odds, Pick & Preview: Value on Justin Dunn & Chris Bassitt in Reds vs. Mets (Monday August 8)
Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Bassitt.
- The Cincinnati Reds send Justin Dunn to the mound to take on Chris Bassitt and the New York Mets on Monday.
- Dunn has not pitched a game in 2022 yet, giving the Reds an unknown heading into the series.
- Shayne Trail explains why this leads to value on the NRFI below.
Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.
No Runs First Inning (+108)
|Matchup||J. Dunn (Reds) vs. C. Bassitt (Mets)|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
On Monday, we travel to New York to find value in an NRFI between two National League teams — the Reds and Mets.
Former first-round pick Justin Dunn will make his first MLB start in 2022 today. He posted a respectable 17-8 NRFI record in his three seasons with the Mariners.
When pitching as an underdog in those three seasons, he went 14-7 to the NRFI.
In 2021, Dunn held an outstanding batting order split that led him to be such a successful NRFI pitcher. When facing lead-off hitters, he allowed just a .038 average. Opposing lead-off hitters went just 1-for-26 against him.
Dunn has only faced Mets hitter Mark Canha, who is 0-for-2 in his career against the right-hander. This leaves the unfamiliarity advantage to Dunn.
It should be noted the Mets’ projected No. 2 hitter, Starling Marte has gone just 6-for-31 in the last seven days.
In the month of August, the Mets rank third in soft contact. When they do make contact in the first inning, it’s nothing near significant.
The Mets will counter with offseason addition Chris Bassitt. Coming into today, Bassitt has gone 16-4 to the NRFI with a 9-1 home NRFI split.
Bassitt has had success against these Reds hitters in the past:
- Kyle Farmer: 0-for-3
- Nick Senzel: 0-for-4
- Mike Moustakas: 3-for-12
Bassitt should have an easier matchup today after the Reds traded their top hitters — Brandon Drury and Tommy Pham — at the deadline.
Farmer is now one of the Reds’ best hitters in this lineup, and he’s just 3-for-21 in the past week. When on the road in 2022, Cincinnatti has stayed scoreless in the first frame at an alarming 80% rate.
With both teams on a 7-3 NRFI run in their last 10 games, bet on the Reds and Mets to continue this trend.