MLB NRFI Bets: Saturday Model Picks & Predictions
Yet another 1-2 day yesterday on MLB NRFI bets, moving our season record to 54-40 and just over 12 units of profit. We've been unable to catch a break lately, but we're due some variance in our direction.
We have three more NRFI picks for Saturday's slate of baseball.
MLB NRFI Bets: Saturday Model Picks & Predictions
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Glasnow vs. Yuseki Kikuchi
There's a handful of ways to play this one. I'm showing similar expected value on the regular YRFI at +105, the Dodgers YRFI at +210, and the Dodgers first inning moneyline of +260. I like taking the bigger swing on the latter, which is essentially a parlay of the Dodgers YRFI and Blue Jays NRFI, that could also hit if the Dodgers outscore the Blue Jays and both teams get on the board.
The biggest driving factor is the Dodgers absurd lineup. Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani start things off for Los Angeles, and they're the two best hitters in the MLB by wRC+ this season. Toronto starter Yuseki Kikuchi is also historically a somewhat slow starter, which adds to the appeal.
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Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray vs. Adrian Houser
Sonny Gray has been awesome this year, with a 1.04 ERA — after finishing last season at 2.79. More importantly, he's yet to allow a run his first or second time through the order in 2024.
Adrian Houser's stats are less impressive this year, with an ugly 7.45 ERA. However, two of his four starts have came against the Braves and Dodgers, the two best offenses in baseball.
Even then he's been solid early, with his first time through the order ERA sitting at 1.04. He gets a much better matchup today against the Cardinals, a bottom-five offense in the MLB.
Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suarez vs. Dylan Cease
I took a shot at this game last night on two pitchers who'd struggled in 2024, hoping they'd return to their 2023 form. That didn't happen.
Tonight we have a much better situation — both Ranger Suarez and Dylan Cease are among the top-10 NL CY Young candidates based on futures markets.
Both offenses here are also on the wrong side of their platoon splits — the Padres are one of the few MLB teams that hits lefties worse than righties. That all makes this a great bet considering the 7.5-run total.
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