MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Tuesday Model Predictions (July 9)

MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Tuesday Model Predictions (July 9) article feature image
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Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Sale.

It was a rough start to the week, losing both our bets on Monday.

We can be more selective on Tuesday with every team in action, so let's get back in the win column.

I'm back with two MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Tuesday, July 9.

MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Tuesday, July 9

Yankees vs. Rays

Tuesday, July 9
6:50 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
YRFI -105 (Play to -115)

Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodon vs. Ryan Pepiot

The deciding factor in this one was both team's platoon splits against the pitcher they're facing today.

New York is a roughly league-average offense against lefties but the best team in baseball against righties. They drew the right-handed Ryan Pepiot today, who has a 3.90 xFIP the first time through the order. That's solid, but not the elite numbers needed to hold Aaron Judge and company down.

On the other hand, Tampa Bay has 111 wRC+ against lefties, which is well higher than their 94 mark against righties. Three of their first four hitters have a higher wOBA against southpaws, with one lone exception — Ahmed Rosario dips from .318 against righties to .317 against lefties.

They're facing lefty Carlos Rodon, who has struggled this year with a 4.45 ERA that jumps to 4.93 his first time through the order.

I also expect the YRFI price to increase as more books move the game total from 8.0 to 8.5, so hop on this one quickly.


Check out our Daily Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Twins vs. White Sox

Tuesday, July 9
8:10 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
NRFI -130 (Play to -140)

Starting Pitchers: Bailey Ober vs. Erick Fedde

There's a good chance this game doesn't play due to the weather in Chicago tonight — but if it does, the temperatures and wind blowing in should help both pitchers.

So, we're in a good spot for the NRFI.

The White Sox offense is so bad that it projects poorly against all but the worst starters in baseball. The Twins' Bailey Ober isn't elite, but he's been solid with his ERA predictors in the mid-threes.

The real question then comes down to the Twins' chances against Erick Fedde. Fedde typically gets off to solid starts, with a 2.45 ERA in his first time through the order.

While the Twins are a solid offense, Fedde has a decent shot at picking up those first three outs without much trouble.

Braves vs. Diamondbacks

Tuesday, July 9
8:10 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
NRFI -125 (Play to -130)

Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale vs. Zac Gallen

Chris Sale was supposed to pitch on Monday, but his start was pushed back a day for extra rest. While that disruption of his routine worries me slightly, my guess is the Braves had been planning that for a day or two, and all should proceed as usual with their de-facto ace.

Sale brings a 2.71 ERA and better underlying numbers into the game. His first-time-through-the-order xFIP is down at 2.31, slightly better than his overall xFIP.

Zac Gallen is no Chris Sale, but the Braves are a below-average team against right-handed pitching. Gallen isn't far off, either, with a 3.06 overall ERA that dips to 2.77 the first time through the order.

Be sure to click on the innings tab on FanDuel for the best price. This one is slightly better than the one under the "popular" tab.

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