There are 9 games on the MLB schedule for Thursday, September 11. The season is winding down, and the postseason races are heating up, which means there are significant implications for several of today's games.
Additionally, there is significant betting value to be found and our betting experts and systems have done just that. So, continue reading for today's MLB best bets.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:05 p.m. | |
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Charlie Disturco's Pirates vs Orioles Best Bet
By Bet Labs
This system targets Unders in regular-season MLB series after both teams had low-scoring performances in the previous game. When both teams scored 0-2 runs in the prior game, the following game is often priced based on regression assumptions. However, many of these games continue to stay under the total due to momentum, fatigue, or strong pitching matchups. Limiting to games 2+ in a series helps isolate these carryover effects and remove opening-game volatility.
Overall, this system is 1402-1131-123 (55%) and has generated a 7% ROI. This season, the ROI has ticked up to 9% as the system has cashed 57% of its picks (73-55-1).
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
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Derek Carty's Nationals vs Marlins Pick
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 5.39 strikeouts for Ryan Weathers. Oddsmakers are implying 4.43 strikeouts, so I believe there is value here. If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 63% of the time, resulting in a 38% ROI with an expected value of $38.40 (based on a $100 wager).
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Pick: Ryan Weathers Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
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Sean Zerillo's Mets vs Phillies Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
Thursday marks the 13th and final meeting between these NL East rivals. These teams have averaged 9.75 runs per game across their 12 meetings, primarily due to bullpen familiarity.
The first-half over is 12-15-2 in head-to-head meetings between these two over the past two seasons (including playoffs), yet the full-game over is 18-11 in that sample.
That said, there’s plenty of starting pitching familiarity between these two as well.
Jesus Luzardo will make his third start against the Mets this season, while David Peterson will make his third start against the Phillies this season.
These are two great offenses, but the Mets are in their better split, as they lead MLB in wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the past month (160).
I project the Mets ML at +104 and 8.94 runs for the total.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (+120), Over 8 (-120)
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Bet Labs' Angels vs Mariners Best Bet
By Bet Labs
The "Silent Sharp Unders" system targets regular-season MLB games where both teams are performing well, yet the total has quietly dropped from open to close. These are games featuring competent, winning teams with recent success, stable weather conditions, and closing totals in a common scoring range. Despite both teams showing strength, the market subtly favors the under — likely due to matchup specifics or pitching. By following this soft signal — when the public eye is more focused on win streaks than totals — this system finds value in betting against inflated scoring expectations.
Overall, this system has an 8% ROI and has cashed 55% of its picks (1315-1058-92). This season, it has cashed 54% of its picks (179-153-8) and has generated a 3% ROI.
Pick: Under 8 (-115)
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