There are 10 games on the MLB slate for Thursday, September 18. Several games have postseason implications, which make these matchups all the more enticing for fans and bettors alike.
There's plenty to watch and our MLB betting experts have already dug into the latest odds to make their picks and predictions. So, let's get right into it. Today's MLB best bets are below.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 p.m. | |
  | 1:10 p.m. | |
  | 2:10 p.m. | |
  | 3:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Paul's Padres vs Mets Best Bet
By Sean Paul
I want the over here. We're looking at the Mets — who have the scariest top-three hitters of any team in baseball — and the Padres, who seem to be just scratching the surface of their offensive upside.
On the flip side, I have zero faith in either pitcher. While Jonah Tong posted a 1.43 ERA over 22 minor-league outings, he only pitched in two games above AA, making him very green. He still needs to refine his command and his elite changeup loses potency if he's not commanding his fastball.
I still view him as a work-in-progress. But I can't back Randy Vasquez, either. I have no clue how he's evaded regression, but the Mets have the plate patience and power to destroy the unimpressive righty.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-135)
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Derek Carty's Guardians vs Tigers Pick
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Gleyber Torres' home runs prop. THE BAT X is projecting 0.15 home runs for him with a 13% chance that he records at least 1 home run. If you can get the over at +850 or better, there is great value.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 Home Runs (+850)
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Bet Labs' Mariners vs Royals Best Bet
By Bet Labs
This system bets the under in daytime games where solid visiting arms suppress scoring and the home offense is steady, but not explosive.
Day games often play slower due to sun, shadows and shorter rest. This system also focuses on visiting starting pitchers who have an ERA between 3.00-4.76 and a WHIP between 1.07-1.39 — pitchers who are efficient, but lack elite notoriety. It also looks for home teams that average between 7.81 and 8.24 hits per game — an average offensive output that's enough to avoid “over” volatility. The regular-season only filter avoids erratic postseason scoring, so this approach isolates a pocket where public expectations may overshoot actual output.
While this system has a 3% ROI lifetime, it's been on fire this season, cashing 65% of its picks. This season, the system is 17-9-2 and has produced a 23% ROI.
Pick: Under 9 (+100)
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PRO Projections' Marlins vs Rockies Best Bet
Agustin Ramirez has a hit in eight straight games and PRO projects value on his doubles prop. Ramirez is projected for 0.44 doubles in today's game, which equates to a 10.6% edge at his +300 price.
Pick: Agustin Ramirez Over 0.5 Doubles (+300)
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Bet Labs' Angels vs Brewers Best Bet
By Bet Labs
"Weather Watch Unders" is a system built for MLB totals bettors who understand how environmental factors quietly shift run production. This approach keys in on games with moderate to strong winds — especially those blowing in or cross-field — paired with mild to cool temperatures, a known recipe for stifled fly balls and reduced scoring.
When totals open high, but tick down before first pitch, it signals sharp money reacting to these same weather cues. With home moneyline ranges excluding extreme mismatches, the model focuses on fairly priced contests where weather truly has a chance to swing scoring. Layer in the context of regular-season motivation, and this strategy captures overlooked market inefficiencies in totals that are inflated by prior offensive output rather than conditions on the field.
Overall, this system is 1549-1258-152 (55%) and has produced a 6% ROI. This season, that ROI has jumped to 11% as the system has cashed 58% of its picks (76-54-4).
Pick: Under 8 (-102)
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