Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, July 30.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- White Sox -112, 0.56u | Bet to -115
- Yankees/White Sox Under 8 (-106), 0.53u | Bet through 8
- Lean Marlins +115 or better
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Yankees @ White Sox Picks
Ryan Weathers is an erratic pitcher, but with a 20.2 K-BB%, it often comes down to what happens when batters are making contact.
For a while, that was too many home runs and barrels, but he’s only allowed a single home run and four barrels over his last six starts, but still has a 4.61 ERA and 5.13 xERA over that span because of his 44.2 HardHit%. However, the xFIP is just 2.75.
Importantly, the gap between right-handed home run factor between Yankee Stadium and Guaranteed Rate Field is 30 points. This park may be better equipped to handle the damage Weathers incurs.
The White Sox are a dangerous bunch at home (projected lineup average 110 wRC+ through Tuesday) and against LHP (111), but those same nine also have just an 86 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
It’s also a very top heavy lineup too with five of the nine above a 135 wRC+ against LHP, but three of the remaining four below 70.
With great timing, Fangraphs had a Wednesday article identifying Sean Burke as a velocity riser, up nearly 2 mph since April, although they were also able break his last six starts down into those where he sat at 96 mph (great) and the two where he did not (not so good).
The article did not include his last start, where Burke sat 95.1 mph and struck out 10 of 24 Astros with a 16.7 SwStr%.
Going back nine starts now, Burke has a 24.4 K-BB% with just a 32 HardHit%. He’s dominated to the tune of a 2.48 ERA, 2.81 xERA and 3.17 xFIP during this stretch.
Down now both Judge and Bellinger, the projected Yankee lineup (I’ve swapped Wells for Sanchez in BARTOLO’s projections for the day game after night game) averages just a 98 wRC+ on the road, 88 vs RHP and 79 over the last 30 days.
The deeper you look the worse it gets. Ben Rice (165) is the only one of the nine to reach a 100 wRC+ over the last month and he’s also the only one above 110 against RHP this year (174) with six if the remaining eight not exceeding 90.
The Yankee defense is about as neutral as it gets with the projected defense accumulating -1 FRV in contract to the 6 FRV for Chicago’s projected starters.
Both bullpens have at least top half of the league estimators over the last month with the White Sox top third of the league (3.59 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 3.58 SIERA), averaging almost exactly one-third of a run better than the Yankees. BARTOLO projects both bullpens middle of the league.
Guaranteed Rate Field suppresses run scoring by 4% on average, while a preliminary weather forecast gives 2-3% of that back and scheduled umpire Andy McKay is almost perfectly neutral.
I’m giving the White Sox very small edges in almost every aspect of this game, including a projected lineup 3 BRR (Base Running Runs) edge.
Add in another small edge for playing at home and I believe they’re getting just a bit slighted here (-112) in what I expect to be a low scoring contest.
I might be on the under for a full unit if a long extra-inning game on Wednesday night wasn't hindering both bullpens.
Picks: White Sox -112, 0.56u | Bet to -115, Under 8 (-106), 0.53u |Bet through 8
Marlins @ Mets Picks
Both Eury Perez (3.56 ERA) and Nolan McLean (3.32 ERA) have more or less been pitching to their respective surface results.
Perez has allowed seven runs over 36 innings since returning from the IL, incurring his worst outing in his last start, allowing three runs over seven innings to the Padres, while striking out just a pair of the 28 batters he’s faced.
It’s not that Perez is striking out more batters (25.6% since returning), but rather, better command has led to fewer walks (7.5%) and less hard contact (3.4% Barrels/BBE, 32.2 HardHit%). It’s a 3.71 xERA, but 2.32 xERA with the truth potentially somewhere in between.
On the season, Perez’s 3.87 SIERA is his best non-pitch modeling estimator and still nearly one-third of a run worse than his ERA, but this seems like a different pitcher from the one who started the season and I like to weigh more recent metrics a bit more heavily than earlier ones.
McLean struggled with some vicious control/command issues mid-season, but has roared back to post a 23.5 K-BB% and 33.3 HardHit% over his last seven starts, posting a 2.09 ERA, 3.57 xERA and 2.93 xFIP during this span.
This is certainly the most exciting pitching matchup on Thursday’s board with Woo and Sasaki a close second.
For all the Marlins’ post-break issues, which they may have just snapped in a series victory over the Phillies, it’s not the fault of the offense.
Thursday’s projected nine, which has become the standard lineup against RHP, averages a 109 wRC+ at home, 113 vs RHP and 119 over the last 30 days.
Conversely, a pair of Franciscos, Lindor (133 wRC+) & Alvarez (164) have been smoking the ball over the last month, but it’s much more of a, let’s see what we’ve got for next year and showcase some trade bait since Juan Sot hit the IL again.
The home team’s projected nine average a 104 wRC+ at home, but just 92 vs RHP and 98 over the last 30 days. Jorge Polanco has a -21 wRC+ since returning from the IL himself, while Luis Robert Jr. (86) and Bo Bichette (87) are additional 2026 imports who have struggled in July.
Giving McLean a half run edge over Perez, I project the Marlins to gain some of that back offensively and with a 4 BRR edge.
The Marlins also have the better defense (14 FRV gap via projected lineups).
Lastly, both of these bullpens have been lacking with bottom third of the league estimators over the last 30 days. Miami (4.78 FIP, 4.53 xFIP, 4.14 SIERA) ranks 24th by these measures and the Mets (5.45 FIP, 4.63 xFIP, 4.23 SIERA) 28th and are coming off a double-header on Wednesday, which makes Miami the more rested unit by default.
With the Mets as small favorites, I’m not endorsing a side right now, but it could become actionable should the Marlins get closer to +120.
Picks: Marlins +115 or better
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, July 30
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- White Sox -112, 0.56u | Bet to -115
- Yankees/White Sox Under 8 (-106), 0.53u | Bet through 8
- Lean Marlins +115 or better
