Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Sunday, June 14. He'll be covering the entire 15-game slate, including picks for Marlins vs Pirates at PNC Park at 12:15 PM ET on Peacock, and Rays vs Angels at 4:07 PM ET on MLB.TV.
Of note, Minion has given out 117 bets across all of his Leadoff segments this season, with a record of 68-47-2 for 38.3 units of profit.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Marlins vs Pirates NRFI
- Mariners F5 ML
- Randy Arozarena Over 2.5 HRR
- Randy Arozarena Home Run
- Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Yankees ML
- Braves vs Mets NRFI
- Astros First to Score
- Mookie Betts Over 1.5 HRR
- Phillies vs Brewers NRFI
- Phillies Moneyline
- Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 HRR
- Nick Kurtz Home Run
- Athletics ML
- Michael Busch Over 1.5 HRR
- Rays ML
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases
Marlins vs Pirates Picks
The Pirates will host the Marlins on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at PNC Park.
In what sets up to be an elite pitching matchup, Pirates’ ace Paul Skenes will take the mound while Miami right-hander Max Meyer will start for the visiting Marlins.
Skenes is having a stellar third season in the Big Leagues after finishing each of his first two seasons with an ERA below 2.00 and an average WHIP of 0.94.
While Skenes’ efficiency on the mound remains the same, his ERA has dipped to 2.84 across his first 13 outings in 2026.
In his first start of the season, he surrendered seven earned runs in less than a frame on the mound, largely due to two stunning errors committed by Oneil Cruz in the outfield that really opened the floodgates.
But aside from the outlier performance in Skenes’ 2026 debut, he has been exceptional on the mound.
Meyer has quietly established himself as one of baseball’s most underrated arms, boasting impressive metrics across the board in 2026.
He has a 6-0 record on the season, and has recorded a 2.85 ERA along with a 1.09 WHIP across his first 14 starts on the bump.
My handicap for Sunday afternoon’s matchup is relatively straightforward, given how highly I think of both starting pitchers.
I feel great about there being no runs scored in the first inning of Sunday’s contest, given how much faith I have in both arms, given their consistent top-notch form.
In fact, I favor this betting angle even more now that Cruz just hit the IL a few days ago after fracturing his hand sliding into home plate. A Cruz-less lineup will definitely impact the top of the Pirates’ batting order.
Pick:
- NRFI
Mariners vs Nationals Picks
The Mariners continue on their road trip in D.C. on Sunday afternoon in what will be the last of a three-game set at Nationals Park.
Miles Mikolas will take the mound for the Nats, while Seattle trots out right-hander Emerson Hancock, who is having a phenomenal fourth season in the Big Leagues.
Though the game will be played in D.C., the Mariners undoubtedly have a massive pitching edge, which I expect to directly impact the outcome of Sunday’s contest.
Across his first 13 outings to kick off his 2026 campaign, Hancock has recorded an exceptional 2.74 ERA thus far, which ranks inside the top-20 amongst starting pitchers.
Hancock has been just as efficient as well, currently posting a 0.95 WHIP on the mound, which ranks sixth in all of baseball.
The same can't be said of Mikolas, who has been one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball to start the season.
Mikolas has recorded a 5.90 ERA across 14 appearances on the mound in 2026, which ranks as the second-worst mark in the 15 seasons he has been pitching in the MLB.
That said, I definitely favor backing the Mariners to prevail on the F5 ML as my first betting angle ahead of Sunday afternoon's interleague clash.
As a secondary betting angle, I will be looking to target some of Seattle’s player prop markets given Mikolas’ vast struggles on the mound this season.
Specifically, I expect Mariners’ righty slugger Randy Arozarena to have a massive day at the plate versus the Nats’ veteran, whom he has demolished in 11 career plate appearances between the two of them.
Arozarena has recorded five hits across those 11 at-bats against the Nats’ veteran, including a double and a homer.
That said, I feel great backing Arozarena to exceed an alternate 2.5 HRR (Hits + Runs + RBIs) in a game he will likely find himself on the base paths, considering Mikolas’ vast command issues in 2026.
Given how much I favor this matchup for Arozarena, I will also be taking a shot on him to smash a homer on Sunday afternoon.
Picks:
- Mariners F5 ML
- Randy Arozarena Over 2.5 HRR
- Randy Arozarena Home Run
Padres vs Orioles Picks
The Padres and Orioles will square off on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game interleague series.
Right-hander Walker Buehler will make the start for the Padres, while the O’s will send out lefty Trevor Rogers, who is in horrific form.
Prior to the start of the 2026 season, Rogers was on my short list for a potential longshot AL Cy Young Award candidate after an unbelievably dominant 2025 campaign — finishing the season with a 1.81 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.
In 2026, the Orioles’ lefty could not be further from last season’s form and has recorded a terrible 6.15 ERA across 12 starts on the mound thus far.
That said, Buehler has not been much better, with the righty having posted a 4.33 ERA along with a 1.35 WHIP across his first 13 starts in 2026.
Given the atrocious form of both starting pitchers heading into this matchup, I'm inclined to target player prop markets as my betting angle.
In 17 career at-bats versus the former Dodger, Orioles’ righty slugger Pete Alonso has absolutely dominated Buehler.
Alonso is one of the premier power hitters in all of baseball, which makes him a tough out for any starting pitcher. The former Met has blasted a ridiculous four homers off Buehler, having driven in eight runners in the process.
A deeper look into the analytics of this matchup reveals how Alonso has such a substantial edge over the Friars’ righty.
Alonso is a monster when facing four-seam fastballs, regularly yielding his highest slugging metrics and hard-hit rates compared to any other pitch.
While Buehler favors his cutter over any other pitch, his four-seam fastball is definitely his second preferred pitch in a rather versatile arsenal.
In accordance with B.A.R.T.O.L.O. — a new statistical model generated by Action Network’s Sean Zerillo — he is throwing his four-seamer at a 19.4% clip with horrific punch-out metrics.
When throwing his four-seamer in 2026, Buehler generated just a 5% whiff rate and an even worse 3% strikeout rate. Buehler has allowed a whopping .422 xwOBA to opposing hitters when throwing his four-seam fastball in 2026.
Given Alonso’s previous dominance over Buehler, I expect him to build upon his prior success versus the former Dodger.
I favor backing Alonso to exceed his 1.5 Total Base mark at Camden Yards on Sunday afternoon.
Pick:
- Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases
Yankees vs Blue Jays Picks
The Blue Jays are set to host their divisional foe, the New York Yankees, in what will conclude a three-game homestand at the Rogers Centre.
Blue Jays’ veteran left-hander Patrick Corbin will take the mound, while the Yanks’ youngster Will Warren will look to build upon what has been a phenomenal start to his 2026 campaign thus far.
Warren has been very impressive in 2026 thus far, having recorded a 3.28 ERA across 13 outings this season, which ranks inside the top-25 amongst starting pitchers.
The Yanks’ righty has a 7-1 record on the season, and has been quite efficient as well, currently posting a 1.19 WHIP in 2026.
While Warren has been fairly consistent to start the season, the Jays’ Corbin is struggling mightily on the mound, which appears to be rather frequent with Toronto’s lefty yet to have surpassed a 4.40 ERA since having done so in 2019 in his first season with the Nationals.
Corbin’s form on the mound has been a consistent nightmare, with the 36-year-old having recorded a 5.23 ERA on average over his last seven seasons.
Given their definitive advantage in the pitching department, I favor backing the Yankees on the moneyline to conclude its divisional-battle with a big victory on Sunday afternoon.
Pick:
- Yankees ML
Braves vs Mets Picks
The Braves and Mets will square off on Sunday afternoon to conclude a three-game set at Citi Field.
Mets’ 30-year-old ace Freddy Peralta will take the mound for New York, while right-hander Bryce Elder will start for the visiting Braves in what I expect to be a divisional thriller on Sunday afternoon.
While Peralta had been remarkably consistent at the onset of his Major League career, with the right-hander having recorded a 3.50 average ERA across eight seasons, he has taken a slight step back in his first season in New York.
Peralta has recorded a 4.04 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP in his first 14 starts for the Mets, with the 30-year-old Dominican having surrendered 35 earned runs across 78 frames on the mound.
Elder has actually been the better pitcher so far this season, recording a 2.66 ERA and 1.05 WHIP across 14 starts.
Peralta hasn't looked like himself this season, but he's fared well against the Braves in the past.
Meanwhile, Elder is in career-best form.
I think that runs could be at a premium in this matchup.
Throw in that Ronald Acuna Jr. just hit the shelf, and I love the NRFI.
Pick:
- NRFI
Astros vs Royals Picks
The Royals will host the Astros on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Kauffman Stadium.
Royals’ 29-year-old right-hander Stephen Kolek will take the mound for Kansas City, while Houston will go with righty Spencer Arrighetti, who is quietly having himself an exceptional 2026 campaign.
Pre-June, Arrighetti had been one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball. In his first eight starts, Arrighetti surrendered just seven earned runs across 47 frames.
Houston’s righty enters Sunday’s matchup with a 7-1 overall record on the season, also having recorded a 2.21 ERA along with a 1.19 WHIP to start the season thus far.
Despite having allowed seven ER over his last two starts in just 10 innings pitched, I am still extremely high on the Astros’ youngster for the remainder of the 2026 season.
While not as impressive as his Sunday counterpart, Kolek is having himself a solid 2026 campaign as well, surrendering just 15 ER throughout his first seven outings of the season.
Kolek has recorded an impressive 3.14 ERA to go along with a 1.07 WHIP in just his third season pitching in the Big Leagues.
Despite Kolek’s solid form on the mound heading into Sunday afternoon’s American League clash, I favor Arrighetti, who I feel is one of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball.
Given my confidence in the Astros’ righty and the fact that they will be batting first on the road in Kansas City, my betting angle for this contest will be for the Astros to score the first run of the game.
Pick:
- Astros First to Score
Dodgers vs White Sox Picks
The Dodgers and White Sox will square off on Sunday afternoon to conclude their three-game interleague series. Right-hander Emmet Sheehan will take the mound for Los Angeles, while the Sox will trot out righty veteran Erick Fedde.
My handicap for Sunday afternoon’s clash will be relatively straightforward, considering the form of both starting pitchers in this matchup has been largely horrific to start the 2026 season thus far.
Given that both starters have recorded a 4.70 ERA throughout the first few months of the season, I am expecting plenty of runs to be scored on Sunday afternoon.
That said, I will be looking to extract value from player prop markets given both of the pitchers’ struggles in 2026.
Specifically, I favor backing Dodgers’ eight-time All-Star and 2018 American League MVP winner, Mookie Betts.
Betts was moved to shortstop in the offseason to improve Los Angeles’ defensive infield, though he missed several weeks to kick off his 2026 campaign due to a strained right oblique injury.
While Betts has largely struggled since his return to action a month ago, I think this is a great spot to target the Dodgers’ slugger versus Fedde.
In four previous at-bats against Fedde, Betts has recorded two hits. Given I expect runs to be plentiful, I expect there to frequently be runners on the base paths, which is why I favor targeting Betts to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark in Sunday afternoon’s interleague showdown.
Pick:
- Mookie Betts Over 1.5 HRR
Phillies vs Brewers Picks
The Brewers will host the Phillies on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at American Family Field.
Left-hander Kyle Harrison has been remarkable in his first year with the Brew Crew, with Milwaukee's youngster having recorded a 2.72 ERA to go along with a 1.16 WHIP.
The Phils' lefty needs no introduction, as Cristopher Sanchez will take the mound and surely be looking to build upon what has been a phenomenal 2026 campaign thus far.
Sanchez may just be the best pitcher in all of baseball right now, having recorded a 1.54 ERA on the season, which ranks second in MLB.
Sanchez also boasts elite strikeout prowess and ranks second with 113 strikeouts across his first 14 outings in 2026.
The 6-foot-6 lefty has an impressive 8-2 record on the season, and has one of the most dominant pitching arsenals amongst all starting pitchers.
He has a deadly high-velocity sinker that often reaches up to an insane 97 MPH, which he deploys against both left-handed hitters and righties. Sanchez’s sinker is his primary weapon, typically resulting in more grounders while limiting clean contact to opposing hitters.
Not only that, but he also boasts a lethal changeup, which is far and away the preferred strikeout weapon in his arsenal.
While not as overpowering as Sanchez, Harrison also has quite an impressive pitching arsenal, highlighted by a devastating breaking ball.
Given the elite form of both starters heading into Sunday afternoon’s matchup, my primary betting angle will be for no runs to be scored in the first inning of the game.
As a secondary betting angle, I favor targeting the Phillies to reign supreme in a game I expect Sanchez to keep on rolling — making his early case for the National League Cy Young Award.
Picks:
- NRFI
- Phillies ML
Rockies vs Athletics Picks
The Rockies and Athletics will duke it out on Sunday afternoon in an interleague battle set to be played at the Athletics’ new Las Vegas Ballpark.
While the Rockies’ Coors Field has always been notoriously known as the park that generates the most scoring in baseball, the Athletics’ new park may just give Coors a run for its money.
This is the second and final series the A's will be hosting at Las Vegas Ballpark, with the first rendition against the Brewers resulting in a whopping 48 runs across the series’ three contests.
That said, I expect plenty of runs to be scored on Sunday afternoon as well.
Right-hander JT Ginn is set to take the mound for the A's, while the Rockies will be going with highly-touted Japanese prospect Tomoyuki Sugano.
In just his second season pitching in the Majors, Sugano was not given the best opportunity to shine, having to pitch at Coors Field, where the Denver thin air density results in the most runs being scored amongst all ballparks.
In 13 starts this season, Sugano has recorded a 4.08 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP, which is actually not terrible given the hitter-friendly ballpark conditions in Colorado.
Ginn has fared far better in 2026 thus far, having recorded a 3.15 ERA across 15 appearances on the mound this season- ranking 20th amongst all starting pitchers.
Given Sunday afternoon’s contest has the highest total on the entire slate, I favor targeting player prop markets from a betting perspective.
Specifically, I feel great backing Athletics’ lefty slugger Nick Kurtz to have a massive day at the plate.
Kurtz boasts elite raw power on the left side of the plate and tremendous plate discipline, especially considering he is in just his second MLB season.
While Kurtz has met Sugano just three times, the Athletics’ youngster recorded a hit off the Rockies’ right-handed veteran.
Given the ideal ballpark conditions and Kurtz’s heater at the plate, I favor targeting the young lefty to both exceed his 2.5 HRR mark and also to smash a homer on Sunday afternoon.
For a third betting angle, I will be taking a shot on the Athletics moneyline as I feel they definitely have a pitching edge and will be looking to impress in Vegas.
Picks:
- Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 HRR
- Nick Kurtz 1+ Home Run
- Athletics ML
Cubs vs Giants Picks
The Giants are set to host the Chicago Cubs in what will conclude a three-game homestand at Oracle Park.
Right-hander Logan Webb will make the start for the Giants, while right-handed veteran Colin Rea will take the mound for the Cubs.
For my primary betting angle, I will be taking more of an analytical approach to highlight matchup advantages on Sunday afternoon.
Since returning from the IL, Webb has been scorching on the mound, having surrendered just one run across 15 frames in his first two starts.
While the Giants’ two-time All-Star appears to have reverted to the elite form we have seen from him over the last several years, he may be vulnerable to one of Chicago’s sluggers.
Per B.A.R.T.O.L.O., Webb has been throwing his sinker far more frequently than any other pitch in his arsenal.
The Giants’ righty is throwing his sinker at a 35.6% clip with an average velocity of 92.3 MPH, though his primary weapon may be far more susceptible to heavy damage at the plate than what meets the eye.
While the rest of Webb’s arsenal has been quite effective concerning his punch-out prowess, B.A.R.T.O.L.O. indicates that his sinker is generating just a 12% whiff rate while also striking out opposing batters just 9% of the time.
The low strikeout rate of his sinker is quite concerning, especially considering his next three favorable pitches — a changeup, sweeper, and four-seam fastball collectively strikeout batters at a 31% clip on average.
While his renowned sinker is largely praised for its ability to generate groundballs, B.A.R.T.O.L.O. suggests that opposing hitters produce a far superior xwOBA at 0.351 — the highest mark among any pitch in his arsenal.
Specifically, I think Cubs’ lefty slugger Michael Busch could pose some issues for Webb given his elite launch angle and exit velocities at the plate, which directly challenge Webb’s groundball tendencies.
If Webb leaves his sinker right over the heart of the plate as opposed to the edges of the strike zone, Busch could certainly launch one into orbit.
In addition, Busch has a history with Webb, having homered in a previous encounter.
Given Busch’s elite metrics against sinkers and tremendous discipline in the box, I will be looking to target him to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark on Sunday afternoon.
Pick:
- Michael Busch Over 1.5 HRR
Rays vs Angels Picks
The Angels will host the Rays on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Angel Stadium.
Right-hander Grayson Rodriguez will take the mound for the Halos in what has been a miserable start to his 2026 campaign thus far.
In his first five outings of the season, the Angels’ righty has recorded a whopping 8.10 ERA to go along with a 1.80 WHIP. Rodriguez has also surrendered 31 earned runs in just over 23 frames.
The former Oriole is posting career lows across the board, which is very concerning entering Sunday afternoon’s matchup versus a scorching Tampa Bay Rays’ lineup.
While the Angels’ righty has been renowned for his punch-out prowess, he has recorded just 23 strikeouts thus far in 2026, which has resulted in his sizable difficulty in retiring hitters.
While Rodriguez was a highly-touted prospect largely for the velocity on his four-seam fastball, Rays’ slugger Junior Caminero presents a terrible matchup for the Halos’ right-hander, given his raw power at the plate.
That said, I expect Caminero to have a massive game at the plate on Sunday afternoon, so I will be looking to back him to exceed his 1.5 Total Base mark as my first betting angle, and also the Rays on the moneyline to reign supreme in the final game of this interleague clash.
Picks:
- Rays ML
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, June 14
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- Marlins vs Pirates NRFI
- Mariners F5 ML
- Randy Arozarena Over 2.5 HRR
- Randy Arozarena Home Run
- Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Yankees ML
- Braves vs Mets NRFI
- Astros First to Score
- Mookie Betts Over 1.5 HRR
- Phillies vs Brewers NRFI
- Phillies Moneyline
- Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 HRR
- Nick Kurtz Home Run
- Athletics ML
- Michael Busch Over 1.5 HRR
- Rays ML
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases
