We’ve got a stacked Wednesday slate starting in the early afternoon and going all the way through the night on the West Coast.
Between the US Open, college football returning, and the NFL just a week away, MLB often falls into the rearview mirror. But with all teams in action today and a couple of home run-prone pitchers, there’s still plenty of value on the board.
So let’s not waste any time and dive in.
My MLB player prop picks today for Wednesday, September 2, are below.
MLB Player Props Today
- Juan Soto Home Run (20c, Kalshi)
- Junior Caminero Home Run (23c, Kalshi)
- Dillon Dingler Home Run (15c, Polymarket)
Mets vs Rays Player Props
The price Kalshi is hanging on Juan Soto here is too high to pass up.
Soto returned from the injured list last week and found the outfield bleachers in his second game back. He hasn’t shown much rust after missing a month, with eight of his 10 balls in play coming off the bat at 94 MPH or higher.
Soto has been otherworldly for the Mets in what has otherwise been a disastrous season. He ranks in the 100th percentile among qualified hitters in both xSLG (.598) and xwOBA (.421). Soto also has arguably the best eye in baseball, and he likely would have been on pace for another 40-homer season if injuries hadn’t sidelined him multiple times.
The matchup is another plus, as Soto draws right-hander Griffin Jax. The reliever-turned-starter ranks in the bottom 20% of qualified pitchers in barrel rate allowed (9.3%), an issue that has followed him throughout his career.
Jax’s 1.37 HR/9 is his highest mark since his rookie season, and that number climbs to 1.46 HR/9 against left-handed hitters.
There’s plenty of value in Soto finding the outfield bleachers at his current price, and I’ll gladly bite on what sets up as a favorable matchup against Jax.
Pick: Juan Soto Home Run (20c, Kalshi)
Justin Hagenman makes his return to the big leagues for the Mets, which should come as a pleasant surprise for the Rays’ offense.
Hagenman has really struggled across his 23⅔ big-league innings. He’s allowed nine barrels while posting a hard-hit rate above 50% — both marks that would rank among the worst in baseball. Another reason to like the home run market when fading Hagenman is his elite 2% walk rate. He challenges hitters, and they’ve frequently made him pay for it.
That should create plenty of home run opportunities for the Rays’ bats, and I’m all over Junior Caminero amid yet another dominant season.
You don’t have to say much to make the case for Caminero. He’s on the verge of his second straight 40-homer season and has once again improved his OPS in 2026. He’s striking out less, walking more, and continuing to produce elite underlying metrics.
As the graph above shows, it’s hard not to love Caminero in this matchup. He’s starting to find his groove again after a late-August lull and now gets an inexperienced right-hander who has consistently struggled to keep the ball in the park.
Pick: Junior Caminero Home Run (23c, Kalshi)
Tigers vs Twins Player Prop Prop
This one is not for the faint of heart.
Dillon Dingler had one of the biggest breakouts of the season, earning his first All-Star selection after hitting 12 home runs with a near-.300 average across June and July. But as is often the case in baseball, a hot stretch can quickly turn into a slump, and Dingler hit a wall in August.
Dingler hit just .173 last month with a .518 OPS — by far his worst month of the season. His struggles shouldn’t be overlooked, but I do think the catcher could be on the verge of breaking out of the slump.
For one, his hard-hit rate, which cratered over the last month and a half, is starting to stabilize and trend back toward league average. His .471 xSLG remains impressive, while his 39.3% sweet-spot rate ranks in the 93rd percentile among qualified hitters despite the recent struggles.
The matchup is also ideal against a home run machine in Dean Kremer.
Dingler actually has reverse splits. Against left-handed pitching, he’s hitting just .219 with a .619 OPS. Against righties, those numbers jump to .262 and .853, respectively. Of his 26 home runs this season, 22 have come against right-handed pitching.
Kremer, meanwhile, has been a home run factory for opposing hitters, allowing a whopping 2.15 HR/9. While he’s been better against right-handed hitters, his 2.08 HR/9 against them is still a major concern.
Kremer is also generating his lowest first-pitch strike rate (59.6%) since 2021 and has a career-low 44.4% of his pitches landing inside the zone.
That combination creates exactly what we want for a home run bet: hitter-friendly counts and plenty of opportunities to do damage.
Pick: Dillon Dingler Home Run (15c, Polymarket)
