For my Thursday MLB player props, I'll be looking into Brayan Bello against the Brewers, Cade Povich facing the Cardinals and George Kirby vs the Nationals.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for May 28, 2025.
MLB Player Props — 5/28
- Brayan Bello Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-110, DraftKings)
- Cade Povich Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125, bet365)
- George Kirby Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+132, BetMGM)
Brayan Bello Player Props: Command Issues for Sox Starter
Command issues have been an issue for Red Sox starter Brayan Bello during his career, but they are really becoming a factor in the length of his outings this season. Bello's walk rate is up over three percent while his strikeout rate is down nearly five percent.
Not only is he recording fewer outs himself, but consistently falling behind in counts has created a lot of traffic on the bases, which his 1.70 WHIP shows.
This afternoon, he'll take the mound against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have been one of the worst lineups in baseball in terms of contact metrics and results, for that matter.
However, the Brewers have begun to show signs of life recently, as evidenced by their performance over their last 10 games.
If they can remain disciplined, they should be able to produce plenty of traffic and get Bello out of the game before the end of the sixth inning.
Cade Povich Player Props: Strikeouts Hard to Come By
Next, we turn our attention to Cade Povich of the Baltimore Orioles. Povich has been fortunate in avoiding traffic, but his underlying numbers suggest his luck is due to run out.
Povich generally does not miss bats and has average command. His lack of whiffs and chases has led to a great deal of hard contact. So much so that his xERA is nearly a full run higher than his season ERA of 4.83.
Today, he'll be up against the St. Louis Cardinals, who are the perfect lineup to cash in on Povich's impending regression.
The Cardinals do not miss the ball much as they have the fourth-lowest whiff rate in the majors and are 13th in strikeout rate against lefties.
While Povich has flashed strikeout upside over his last two starts, a larger sample size shows his average per start is much closer to four. Given the matchup, I expect four to be his maximum today.
George Kirby Player Props: Back Kirby to Rebound
George Kirby's season debut did not go to plan as he exited in the fourth inning after allowing five earned runs on six hits. This comes after a 2024 season where it was rare not to see a quality start from Kirby.
However, despite the rough box score, Kirby had some encouraging signs in that outing as he allowed zero barrels, and six of the 12 balls put in play were on the ground, while his command was still sharp.
Tonight, he should bounce back against the Washington Nationals, who have not been great against right-handed pitching.
The Nats are at the bottom third of baseball in average, OBP, and 25th in BABIP against right-handed pitchers, which means their contact is often weak.
We should see Kirby return to form tonight and stay under this total, which he did 42 percent of the time in 2024.
