For my Sunday MLB player props, I'll be looking into player props for three starting pitchers: Erick Fedde, Garrett Crochet and Freddy Peralta.
Of those three props, I'll be betting two outs recorded plays and one strikeout under.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Sunday, May 4.
MLB Prop Picks — Sunday, May 4
- Erick Fedde Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-125, DraftKings)
- Garrett Crochet Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120, DraftKings)
- Freddy Peralta Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (+105, bet365)
Mets vs Cardinals Player Props: Back Fedde to Last
Erick Fedde may not be projected for the most success in his outing today, but with a doubleheader on tap, he's the guy who can give the Cardinals length.
Fedde has gone over this mark in five of his six starts, all while holding a 4.68 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
He's due to return to form, which means many strikes early in the count and efficiency working through the order.
Last season, Fedde's strikeout rate was 9% higher, and his walk rate was 4% lower.
His career averages are much closer to last year than what we've seen through six starts this year, so unless the Mets put the ball in the air consistently — which they don't typically do with the ninth-highest groundball rate in the majors — we should see Fedde bounce back in a big way and deliver the length needed for this long day on the diamond.
Twins vs Red Sox Player Props: Nice Matchup for Crochet
Garrett Crochet is one of the highest-upside strikeout pitchers in the game, and he has a great opportunity to show that this afternoon against the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins are one of the most strikeout-prone teams in baseball, and lefties are no exception, ranking 28th in team strikeout rate.
As for Crochet, we've seen walks impact the length of his outings, but they don't hamper his ability to rack up strikeouts.
His strikeout rate sits in the 81st percentile, and the Twins aren't a team looking to walk. They come in at 29th in walk-to-strikeout rate against lefties.
This mark is a total we've seen Crochet hit in four of his seven starts, and everything points to him eclipsing it for a fifth time today.
Cubs vs Brewers Player Props: Fade Peralta
Speaking of pitchers with high strikeout upside and occasional command issues, Freddy Peralta will take the ball this afternoon against the Chicago Cubs.
Peralta hasn't worked deep into games this season, having gone under this total in five of his seven starts. We saw his inability to work deep into starts last season, as he went under this mark 58% of the time in 2024.
Peralta has a tendency to pitch into a lot of deep counts, so his pitch count racks up despite his success.
However, his tendency to fall behind hitters will work against him today because the Cubs can punish him in hitters' counts.
The Cubs are the fifth-best lineup in baseball against right-handed pitching, and they're not a team you want to face if you have impending regression like Peralta.
His 2.52 ERA is due to inflate. His xERA comes in at 3.10, and his FIP sits at 3.77. This should be the start where his flaws catch up to him, so take him to exit before the sixth today.
