The New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals are set to play a doubleheader on Sunday, May 4. First pitch for Game 1 from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 1:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSMW.
Find my Mets vs Cardinals prediction for the first game on Sunday below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, and more.
Mets vs Cardinals Predictions & Picks
- Mets vs Cardinals picks: Over 8.5; Bet to Over 9 (play to -115)
My Mets vs Cardinals best bet is the game total to go over 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Total
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -120 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +100 |
Mets vs Cardinals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Blade Tidwell (NYM) | Stat | RHP Erick Fedde (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| — (MLB debut) | W-L | 1-3 |
| — | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| — | ERA /xERA | 4.68 / 4.82 |
| — | FIP / xFIP | 4.77 / 5.49 |
| — | WHIP | 1.35 |
| — | K-BB% | 0.7% |
| — | GB% | 39.2% |
| — | Stuff+ | 91 |
| — | Location+ | 106 |
Mets vs Cardinals Preview, Prediction
Cardinals Betting Insights
St. Louis will hand the ball to Erick Fedde, who’s still hunting down the form from his resurgent 2024 campaign. Nothing about Fedde’s profile stood out beyond his 3.30 ERA last year, and his pristine walk rate stood out last year. But he managed to get outs and be a profitable pitcher.
This year, Fedde is issuing 4.41 BB/9, up from 2.64 last year. Even more worrying is that Fedde strikes out just 4.68 batters per nine, and walking and striking out nearly the same number of hitters is a total nightmare.
The real problem surrounding the Cardinals is a total lack of offense, ranking 25th with an 84 wRC+ since April 15th. Oddly enough, the Cardinals excel at limiting punchouts (sixth-best K-Rate in that span) and walk a ton (10th-best walk rate).
So, what's the issue?
The Cardinals lack a true slugger to lift the lineup from the middle of the pack and have too much lineup deadweight.
Keep an eye on Masyn Winn, Willson Contreras and Lars Nootbaar. Each one has posted a 120 wRC+ or better since April 15. To fully unlock the offense, the pressure falls on Nolan Arenado, who's hitting .158 in his last 15 games, and Alec Burleson, who has a .545 OPS in his last 13 games.
All that said, I'm plenty optimistic about the Cardinals using their patient approach to put pressure on Tidwell and force him into high-stress innings.
Mets Betting Insights
The Mets tabbed Tylor Megill as Saturday’s starter but pushed him to the second game of the twin bill. That means Blade Tidwell, a highly touted prospect, will make his MLB debut.
Tidwell shined in Spring Training, capped with an immaculate inning in one of his starts that put him on the radar. It’s been a mixed bag in Triple-A, with a 5.00 ERA, 3.21 FIP and a dazzling 12.3 K/9.
However, it's always tough to gauge how the minor-league numbers translate to the bigs. The one thing I can say is that Tidwell will be in trouble if he posts a 1.33 WHIP like he did in AAA.
New York features one of the scariest offenses in baseball. Since April 15, the Mets rank fourth in wRC+ (133), home runs and strikeout rate. The mix of power and patience makes them tough to contain.
You could make a compelling argument that the Mets' trio of Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Juan Soto is the most fearsome in MLB.
Alonso has done nothing but hit all year — he boasts a 216 wRC+ since April 15. If that doesn't wow you, he also walks and strikes out 16.9% of the time.
Mets vs Cardinals Prediction, Over/Under Pick
I love grabbing Over 9 runs at plus money.
The line sits at +102 at the time of writing, but I'd be fine playing the total up to -115.
Fedde has allowed 8+ runners in four of his six outings, and while some teams like the Pirates and Astros won't make a pitcher pay for traffic, the Mets will. It's always dangerous to back a starter in his MLB debut, so that's why I prefer the total to taking the Mets.
Fedde will allow some runs. I have no doubt there, but Tidwell had an ERA over 5.00 in the minors.
Is he a very talented arm with insane potential? Absolutely, but he wasn't great in the minors, so it's tough to just assume he'll be great right away in the bigs.
Pick: Over 8.5
Moneyline
I'm avoiding any play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also not betting the spread.
Over/Under
As I mentioned above, I love the over at plus money.
Mets vs Cardinals Betting Trends
Cardinals vs Mets Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Busch Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, May 4 |
| Time: | 1:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | WPIX, FanDuel Sports Midwest; MLB.TV |
