MLB Player Props, Picks: How to Bet Zac Gallen, Javier Assad, Blake Snell
Javier Assad #72 of the Chicago Cubs reacts during the 2024 Spring Training Game between San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs at Sloan Park. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
After a 6-3 weekend, we look to carry over our success into a new week. We have a good amount of games on tap, and with the solar eclipse happening today, it's only fitting that we determine if some men on the mound will eclipse their totals.
So without further ado, let's dive into our top MLB player props and picks for Monday, April 8th.
MLB Player Props For Monday, April 8th
The Arizona Diamondbacks will hand the ball to their ace, Zac Gallen. Gallen will be tasked with having success in a place very few do: Coors Field.
The atmosphere in the mile-high city tends to impact opposing pitchers as their breaking pitches don't break as they typically would. However, Gallen is no stranger to Coors Field and has proven he can be lights out, even with his environment against him.
Gallen has made three starts at Coors Field and has exceeded this total in two of them, averaging seven strikeouts per start. This is also a number we've seen him surpass in 54 percent of his 72 career starts.
That hit rate equates to implied odds of -117, which is solid value given the plus-money price we're getting. Gallen will also be given a boost tonight as Colorado comes into this matchup with the sixth-highest team strikeout rate in baseball.
With all signs pointing to the over, our Action Labs projections are the nail in the coffin. They have Gallen slated for 6.5 strikeouts tonight, which makes this one of the best plays of the day.
Pick: Zac Gallen over 5.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
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For our second pick, we head even further west as the Chicago Cubs take on the San Diego Padres. Tonight, the Cubbies will hand the ball to Javier Assad.
Assad impressed in his season debut as he threw six innings of shutout ball against the Colorado Rockies. However, tonight, he will face a much more potent lineup, and the length of his outing tonight is in question.
Assad became a swingman for the Cubs last season, making ten starts and 22 relief appearances. In his ten starts, he went more than five innings in six of them, but only two of his longer outings came against good lineups.
The San Diego Padres are a lineup due for positive regression as they rank fourth in xBA. They hit the ball hard, and are due to find holes.
So, they should be able to create traffic and do damage against Assad, who ranked in the 11th percentile in whiff rate last season. All the traffic should drive up Assad's pitch count and send him to the showers before the sixth tonight.
Pick: Javier Assad Under 15.5 Outs (-115 at Caesars)
We stay in Califonia as the reigning National League Cy Young Award Winner will make his debut for the San Francisco Giants. Lefty Blake Snell signed very late in the offseason as he did not get the long-term contract he was hoping for.
Perhaps that is telling, as Snell has shown he can have very volatile results from outing to outing. Much of that volatility is due to command.
Even in his incredible season last year, walks were a big issue. Snell ranked in the fourth percentile in walk rate last season and walked at least two batters in 84 percent of his starts.
That 84 percent hit rate gives us implied odds of -525 that he will go over again tonight. So, the juice is worth the squeeze here.
Pick: Blake Snell Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-170 at DraftKings)
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