MLB Player Props Picks Today: 2 Bets for Saturday’s 4 Playoff Games, Including George Springer, Aaron Nola (October 8)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola
The first day of the MLB postseason was filled with everything you could have imagined. There were dominant pitching performances, clutch home runs, and even a massive ninth-inning rally. However, that’s all history now as these eight clubs must reset; for four of them, their season hangs in the balance.
With the stage set, I’ve found two men poised to help their clubs advance today. So let’s find out who they are and how we’re betting on them.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
George Springer Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
|Mariners vs. Blue Jays|
|First Pitch||4:07 pm ET|
The Blue Jays’ offense may have been shut out Friday, but one man did not go quietly, and that was George Springer. However, in his last at-bat, he was hit in the wrist and immediately left the game.
Fortunately, the X-rays on his wrist were negative, and Springer’s wrist is apparently feeling OK. That is fantastic news because he has an excellent matchup today.
Springer has excelled against lefties in his career, and that is shown by a .276 batting average and a .880 OPS. Today, he faces one lefty that he’s had a large amount of success against in Robbie Ray. Springer has crushed Ray in his career. The two have faced off 15 times, and throughout those at-bats, Springer is hitting .400 with a .933 slugging percentage, as four of his six hits have been for extra bases.
Ray is also due to regress from his regular season performance, as his FIP is 4.17, which is much higher than his ERA of 3.71. So the regression is coming for Ray, which could come fast with Springer at the top of the order.
Pick: Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
|Phillies vs. Cardinals|
|First Pitch||8:37 pm ET|
I know the Cardinals are not a team to target for strikeouts, as they finished the regular season with the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors, but this total is far too low for Aaron Nola.
First, Nola has gone over this total in 78.1 percent of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -357 that he will go over again tonight. Off the bat, that is significant line value that we cannot pass up.
Then let’s factor in Nola’s excellent career numbers against this Cardinals lineup. He has compiled 119 at-bats against the St. Louis order and has held them to a combined .227 average with a 19.7 strikeout rate. Mixed into those numbers is a clunker outing against them where he allowed five earned runs over seven innings pitched, but he struck out seven batters.
Nola has been a workhorse this season as he went at least six innings in 25 of his 32 starts this season, and he averaged 1.14 strikeouts per inning. So with him fully expected to go deep in this game, we need one strikeout per inning, and we’ll be golden.
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 7