MLB Player Props Picks Today: 2 Bets for Sunday’s Playoff Game, Including Juan Soto, Joe Musgrove (October 9)
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Juan Soto.
- There's only one MLB playoff game on Sunday, but our props analyst has found value on two plays in Padres-Mets.
- He's eying plays on Joe Musgrove's strikeout total and Juan Soto's total bases.
- Check out his picks and analysis below.
This star-studded series will come to a close tonight as the season will be on the line for the Mets and Padres in game three of their NL Wild Card series tonight. We have seen it all thus far, and this matchup is poised to be a great one. So I've found two additional ways to enjoy it and potentially pad our bankroll as well. Let's get into the top player props for tonight's matchup.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I'll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Joe Musgrove Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-109)
| Padres vs. Mets | |
| First Pitch | 7:07 pm ET |
| Best Line: -109 | BetRivers |
The Padres are a postseason team because of thier pitching, and the depth of it is impressive when you consider that Joe Musgrove is thier third starter for this series. Musgrove had a fabulous 2022 regular season as he held a 2.93 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. A big part of his success this season was his ability to pile up strikeouts, as he averaged over a strikeout per inning.
While this may not be the greatest of matchups, as the Mets have one of the lowest team Strikeout Rates in the majors, this total is far too low to pass up. Furthermore, Musgrove has gone over this total in 70 percent of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -233 that he'll go over again.
On top of the line value, Musgrove has compiled quite a bit of history against this Mets lineup. In a total of 94 at-bats, the Mets are hitting just .234 with a 26 percent Strikeout Rate. If Musgrove is on, he could fly over this total tonight.
Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Action Labs Grade: 10
Juan Soto Over 0.5 Total Bases
| Padres vs. Mets | |
| First Pitch | 7:07 pm ET |
| Best Line: -160 | DraftKings |
If you take a quick look at Juan Soto's numbers, it's clear to see he's had a down year offensively, but his underlying metrics still point to him being one of the game's elites from the left side of the dish. He always has the potential to make an impact with one swing of the bat, and we saw him get back on track last night as he went 2-for-4. While he's just 2-for-8 for the series, he has a favorable matchup, and the market continues to sleep on him.
Soto's opposite-hand splits have been a bit more drastic this season than in prior years, as he's hit righties significantly better than lefties. However, we can use that to our advantage. Overall, Soto has hit .261 with a .942 OPS and has an ISO of .249 against right-handers this year. Those numbers display his extra-base potential, but for this prop, we are great with just a single.
Soto has struggled this season overall, but he is still one of the game's best and appears to have seen the ball better and put together much better at-bats last night. So he is bound to make an impact.
Lastly, Soto has hit Chris Bassitt very well in their brief history against one another. Soto is 2-for-3 with two singles but had an average Exit Velocity of 98 mph on those two hits.
Pick: Over 0.5 Total Bases
Action Labs Grade: 9
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