MLB Player Props: Pitcher props for Adam Wainwright, Corbin Burnes (Thursday, September 8, 2022)
It’s getaway day across the big league circuit, which means we get plenty of day games. We can further enjoy day baseball on this Thursday as I’ve pinpointed two starters set to take the mound this afternoon.
Let’s find out who they are and how we’re betting them in today’s top player props.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Adam Wainwright Under 20.5 Outs Recorded (-105)
|Nationals vs. Cardinals||Cardinals -265|
|First Pitch||1:15 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: -105||DraftKings|
Old Uncle Charlie has been spectacular for the Cardinals in his age 41 season. We have seen him look spectacular at times as he enters this outing with a 3.21 ERA but has a 1.20 WHIP.
At this point in his career, he is far from a strikeout artist and allows quite a bit of traffic on the bases. That is primarily why his xERA is over a full run higher than his actual ERA at 4.26.
Aside from his own flaws, Waino will have a tough matchup as the Nationals have proven to have some fight in them since the trade deadline. They’ll enter this afternoon’s matchup with the fourth lowest strikeout rate in the majors. The formula to get Wainwright out of this game is to capitalize on the traffic he allows and create as many stressful pitches as possible, which this Washington lineup can do as they put the ball in play quite frequently.
Lastly, while Waino has eaten up inning this season, the numbers tell a bit of a different story, as this number is a tad too high. To go over this total, he would have to finish the seventh inning, which he has failed to do in 59.3 percent of his starts. That gives us implied odds of -145 that he will go under this afternoon.
Pick: Under 20.5 Outs recorded (-105)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Corbin Burnes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-160)
|Giants vs. Brewers||Brewers -200|
|First Pitch||4:10 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: -160||Bet365|
Corbin Burnes has been in a bit of a funk lately as he finished August with a 4.81 ERA and allowed five earned runs in his first start in September. However, he’s in a great spot to get back on track this afternoon.
The Giants have been cold offensively over the last two weeks as they rank 20th in batting average and 17th in wRC+ over that span. However, the one stat that stands out above the rest is that they also have the sixth-highest strikeout rate across the majors at 25.8 percent, which is well above league average.
Burnes’ recent slump has impacted his strikeout numbers as he’s failed to over this number in each of his last five starts, but the good news is that he’s due for some positive regression.
Overall, he has gone over this total in 55.6 percent of his starts, which gives him implied odds of -125 that he’ll go over again. While that may not present value on this line, the market has begun to hammer this total, and it has jumped to 7.5 at some books. He certainly does have eight strikeout potential against this Giants lineup, but I would play it smaller as he’s only gone over 7.5 48 percent of the time.
Pick: Over 6.5 Strikeouts (Play to 7.5)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10