MLB Player Props Saturday | Garrett Crochet, MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Pepiot (April 13)
We got back on track yesterday as we missed a sweep by one strikeout. However, we are poised to get it back today as I've found three more starting pitchers to target on today's slate.
Games begin bright and early, so let's dive into our top three MLB player props for Saturday, April 13.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, April 13
This under may get sweaty, but it's the side you want to be on. White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet has looked electric in the early part of this season with an ERA of 2.00 and 21 strikeouts in 18 innings of work.
16 of those 21 strikeouts came in his first two starts of the year where he recorded eight in each of them. However, even for someone with great stuff like Crochet, that number of strikeouts will not be the norm.
In the past two seasons, Crochet's strikeout rates were 28.3% and 18.8% as a reliever. With his role in the rotation now, we should expect regression, as he will be facing batters multiple times and will have to manage his stamina.
So, while he has a good matchup for strikeouts against the Cincinnati Reds this afternoon, look for him to regress a bit and take the under.
Pick: Garrett Crochet Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Next, we head out to Oakland, where there may not be many fans in attendance, but you're going to want to tune in as we are fading Washington National starter MacKenzie Gore.
Gore has a tremendous matchup in front of him against the Oakland A's, who come in with the third-highest team strikeout rate in the majors. However, he has been a barrel finder early on this season as he ranks in the ninth percentile in barrel rate allowed and subsequently has an xERA of 4.50.
His tendency to leave mistakes in the strike zone will limit his ability to rack up strikeouts, even against a sluggish A's lineup. In addition to the matchup, Gore has not proven he can exceed this total with any consistency.
In his 45 career stars, Gore has gone under this total 71% of the time. That gives us whopping implied odds of -245 that he will go under this afternoon.
Plus, this under is one of the top plays, according to our Action Labs projections. They have him slated for 5.3 strikeouts, which only amplifies the tremendous line value.
Pick: MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)
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For our final fade, we head back across the country to Tampa Bay, where Ryan Pepiot will take the hill against the San Francisco Giants. Pepiot has had two very different starts to begin the 2024 season as he was shelled against the Texas Rangers, allowing six runs, walking four, and only striking out three.
However, he followed that up with six shutout innings against the Colorado Rockies, where he struck out 11, walked none, and surrendered just three hits. So, which version will we see today? My pick is somewhere in the middle.
Pepiot faces a San Francisco Giants lineup with scrappy bats who do not strike out much. As a result, the Giants rank 19th in team strikeout rate. On top of that, Pepiot's last outing was clearly an outlier, as he has only gone over this total in three of his 19 career appearances.
With all signs pointing against Pepiot tonight, the nail in the coffin is our Action Labs projection. They have him slated for just 4.8 strikeouts, which makes this one of the best unders today.
Pick: Ryan Pepiot Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155)
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