MLB Odds, Best Bets: 2 Thursday Picks, Including Red Sox vs. Reds & Marlins vs. Padres

There are just seven games on the MLB slate for Thursday, June 1, but there are numerous betting opportunities within those games. Our MLB betting experts have looked over the matchups and found the best MLB betting value on the board.

Our experts are targeting a moneyline in Padres vs. Marlins and a player prop in Reds vs. Red Sox.

So, let's take a look at what they found. The best MLB bets for Thursday, June 1 are below.

Thursday's MLB Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time	Pick
	1:10 p.m. ET	Padres Moneyline (-120)
	7:10 p.m. ET	Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114)
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Padres vs. Marlins

Thursday, June 1 1:10 p.m. ET MLB Network

Padres Moneyline (-120)

By D.J. James

The Miami Marlins struggled against right-handed pitching in May and were below average as they posted a 94 wRC+ with a 7.6% walk rate against right-handers. Well, they're set to begin June with a matinee against Joe Musgrove and the San Diego Padres.

Yes, Musgrove has had poor results, but that doesn't tell the entire story. His ERA may be 5.64, but his xERA is 3.69, meaning he should experience positive regression over the next few starts. In addition, he ranks in the 79th percentile in Hard Hit Rate and the 84th percentile in Average Exit Velocity. With a Chase Rate in the 84th percentile, he should look like himself soon. In fact, that's already started. Musgrove posted a 3.68 ERA over four May starts against quality competition (the Dodgers twice, the Red Sox and the Yankees).

Jesús Luzardo will get the start for Miami. He has an 11.1% Barrel Rate, and the Padres had a 10.5% walk rate, an .811 OPS and a 125 wRC+ off of southpaws in May. San Diego should be able to notch some early runs, even if Luzardo has a 3.88 xERA. He is a solid pitcher, but the Padres' lineup is much deeper than Miami's.

Miami's bullpen is better with a 3.79 xFIP against San Diego’s 4.15 xFIP, but that won't matter much if the Marlins can't get Musgrove out of the game.

Take the Padres from -120, and play them to -140.

Pick: Padres Moneyline

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Reds vs. Red Sox

Thursday, June 1 7:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV

Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114)

By Nick Shlain

One of my favorite bets on the Thursday slate is for Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene to go over 6.5 strikeouts.

The Reds are in Boston for the last game of a series with the Red Sox. Greene is one of the premiere strikeout pitchers in baseball this season with a 32% strikeout rate. Greene has gone over this number in five of his past six starts, so there's certainly value in this number — especially at plus money.

The Boston lineup doesn't strike out a ton, as the projected batting order is striking out just 21% of the time against right-handers this season. However, there is still some upside for Greene, as five hitters in Boston's projected batting order have a strikeout rate of at least 24% against right-handers.

It's also important to note that Greene has recorded double-digit strikeouts in each of his past two starts. He’s also gone over this number in each of his past three starts on the road. Simply put, I think this line is too low.

Pick: Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts

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