MLB Player Props, Picks: How to Bet Dean Kremer & More on Friday
Via G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Dean Kremer #64 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 13, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland.
- There's a stacked MLB slate on Friday, and our props analyst has identified three bets with value.
- He's backing Dean Kremer, NIck Castellanos and Ha-Seong Kim in their respective matchups tonight.
- Find Alex Hinton's MLB player prop picks and analysis for Friday, June 30 below.
Today kicks off Fourth of July Weekend, and for many that means extended weekends off from work. The MLB planned accordingly and has games scheduled in windows all throughout the day.
Let's begin in Cincinnati where the Reds will host the Padres. Ha-Seong Kim has been on a tear of late, and today he gets a favorable matchup against Graham Ashcraft in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league.
The Nationals will continue their road trip on the East Coast in Philadelphia with Josiah Gray getting the ball for them. The last time he faced the Phillies, Nick Castellanos went off, and Castellanos may be in line for another big performance today.
Several starting pitchers have put together strong performances against the Twins this season by generating tons of swings and misses. Dean Kremer may be next in line when he gets the ball for the Orioles tonight.
MLB Player Props For Friday, June 30
Ha-Seong Kim Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
| Padres vs. Reds | San Diego -134 |
| First Pitch | 5:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
On a Padres lineup packed with star power, Ha-Seong Kim is second on the team with a 3.3 WAR. He has particularly shown his value offensively. Over his past 15 games, he has recorded a hit in 11 games and is hitting .358 with a 1.020 OPS. In the process, he has raised his batting average from .228 to .258.
Recently, he flashed more power as well. Four of the nine home runs he has hit this season have come in the past 10 games, including a home run in the series finale in Pittsburgh. That has helped him cover this line in six of his last 10 games. In that span, he is averaging 2.7 total bases per game.
During the three-game series against the Reds in May, Kim recorded two total bases in just one of the three games. However, he had six total bases in the game that he went over. Today's game comes in the hitter's paradise at Great American Ballpark with Graham Ashcraft on the mound.
Ashcraft has been worth fading in most situations this season. He has a 7.17 ERA overall, a 9.17 ERA at home and has allowed 16 extra-base hits (seven home runs), a .306 batting average and .906 OPS to right-handed hitters this season.
Kim is 1-for-2 with a walk against Ashcraft. Should the Padres take advantage of this matchup, he likely will not see Ashcraft too long. Ashcraft has allowed six runs in three of his past five starts and has not made it past the fifth inning in any of them. However, with Kim at the top of the order, three opportunities against Ashcraft in addition to the Reds bullpen should generate two total bases today.
Pick: Ha-Seong Kim Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
| Phillies vs. Nationals | Philadelphia -180 |
| First Pitch | 6:06 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Nick Castellanos probably is not happy that today is the last day in June. This month, he is hitting .355 with five home runs, 21 runs batted in, and a .973 OPS. He has raised his batting average to .309 and ranks seventh in the major leagues. Like Kim, Castellanos also has recorded a hit in 11 of his last 15 games and has had six multi-hit games in that stretch.
Castellanos also has particularly enjoyed facing Washington this season. In a three-game series in early June, Castellanos went 8-for-14 (.571) with a double, two home runs and five runs batted in against the Nationals.
Both home runs came against tonight's starter Josiah Gray. Castellanos is 4-for-11 (.364) with three home runs and five runs batted in against Gray in his career.
Gray is enjoying a breakout season with a 3.43 ERA that is well below his 4.67 mark for his career. However, he still lets up a lot of traffic, evidenced by his 1.40 WHIP.
Castellanos is +425 on bet365 to hit a home run, which would easily give us two total bases. However, this is a spot where I expect him to be on base. He should hit this line either with two hits or a multi-hit performance.
Pick: Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Dean Kremer Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-134)
| Twins vs. Orioles | Baltimore -118 |
| First Pitch | 7:06 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
When Dean Kremer gets the ball, he generates swings and misses. In 10 of his last 13 starts, he has struck out at least five batters. He has gone over this line in six of those starts, hitting a season-high of seven twice. If there is a matchup for Kremer to hit a new season-high, it is against the Minnesota Twins, who strike out in bunches.
The Twins lead the league in Strikeout Rate (27.1%) against right-handed pitchers. Three of the last five starters they have faced exceeded their strikeout props, and each had at least eight strikeouts.
Spencer Strider strikes out everyone, so it was not a surprise to see him get 10 Ks on Monday. However, Minnesota also struck out nine times against Tigers rookie Reese Olson last Saturday and eight times against journeyman Kolby Allard on Wednesday afternoon.
For a pitcher like Kremer, the opportunity will be there to hit this number. Kremer has pitched into the sixth inning in seven of his last 10 starts. If he does pitch six full innings tonight, he will hit this line with one strikeout per inning. Given that he typically lands between the 5-7 range for strikeouts, I would not expect Kremer to cash his full ladder. However, eight or more strikeouts could be a sweet spot, and you can bet that at +300 on FanDuel.
Pick: Dean Kremer Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
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