MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Rafael Devers, Tony Gonsolin, Cole Ragans (Saturday, August 12)
Pictured: Rafael Devers. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
We are coming out swinging this Saturday, as there is a loaded slate of MLB action on tap. While there are plenty of props to sort through, I've done the heavy lifting for you and found three of the best edges on the board. So let's dive into today's top MLB player props.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, August 12th
Rafael Devers (BOS) Over 0.5 Home Runs +330
|Tigers vs. Red Sox||Red Sox -205|
|First Pitch||4:10 p.m. ET|
Rafael Devers has been tearing the cover off the ball this season. He ranks in the 94th percentile in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
While his numbers on the season are very solid, Devers is due for some positive regression in the power department. His xSLG is 30 points higher than his current slugging percentage.
We should see Devers' power on full display as he'll face Matt Manning for his first few at-bats. Manning has been hit hard through ten starts this season, as is evident by his 5.06 ERA.
Looking deeper, Manning has not fooled many hitters. He comes into this start sitting in the fifth percentile in xSLG, barrel rate, and whiff rate. With his other contact metrics being just as bad, he might be in trouble when Devers steps to the plate.
With Devers' total bases prop being highly juiced, the best way to back him is to take him to go yard this afternoon.
Cole Ragans (KC) Under 5.5 Strikeouts -125
|Cardinals vs. Royals||Cardinals -145|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
Royals lefty Cole Ragans will make his fourth start of the season, and he has flashed serious upside since being inserted into the starting rotation. Ragans has allowed just two earned runs and has punched out 22 batters in his three starts.
However, his recent performances look to have inflated his strikeout prop for his start tonight. While we don't have a big sample size to go off of, Ragans has a tough matchup in front of him.
Despite all the disappointment and struggles surrounding the St. Louis Cardinals this season, their lineup is still plenty dangerous, and they are very good at putting the ball in play.
The Cardinals rank 24th in team strikeout rate and due for some positive regression as they are a top-ten offense, according to expected metrics. With all that working against Ragans tonight, it's best to fade the hype he's built recently.
Tony Gonsolin (LAD) Under 5.5 Strikeouts-130
|Rockies vs. Dodgers||Dodgers -300|
|First Pitch||9:10 p.m. ET|
Tony Gonsolin put together a magical first half in 2022, but it has been all downhill since then. Through 18 starts in 2023, Gonsolin holds a 4.42 ERA, and his strikeout rate has hit a career low at 18.9 percent.
A five percent drop in strikeout rate has led to a ton more contact off him, and the majority of it has been loud. So, even though he has a great matchup in front of him from a strikeout perspective, it is unlikely that he can get over this mark.
While I highlighted his struggles this season, going under this total has been a theme for Gonsolin. He has gone under this total in 68.9 percent of his last 61 starts.
That gives us implied odds of -221 that he will go under again tonight.