MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Wade Miley, David Peterson, Jake Irvin (Saturday, September 9)
Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Jake Irvin #74 of the Washington Nationals.
While the majority of eyeballs will be on the college gridiron this Saturday, we cannot forget about the action on the diamond. There are some tremendous edges in the player prop markets today, and I've found three that are great investments. Let's break down the top three MLB player props for this Saturday's slate.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, September 9
The New York Yankees are being given far too much credit this afternoon. Yes, this matchup takes place in their very hitter-friendly home park, but that does not mean they are going to knock Wade Miley out of this game as early as the line implies.
The Yankees may have some sluggers but are far from a potent lineup as they have the second-worst team batting average in baseball and are 19th in wRC+. Meanwhile, Miley has been a consistent source of length for the Brewers at the backend of their rotation.
Unlike many other pitching outs lines you'll see, Miley only has to get through five, and the odds are far higher than the probability of the current odds. Miley has surpassed this total in 67.9% of his last 28 starts. That gives us implied odds of -211 that he will go over again this afternoon.
Pick: over 14.5 pitching outs -135
With the Mets folding at the trade deadline and injuries mounting, David Peterson has gotten a second shot in the starting rotation and is in a prime spot to rack up the strikeouts this afternoon.
The lefty will get to face the Minnesota Twins, who own the highest team strikeout rate in the majors. While Peterson's ERA is high, one of his saving graces has been his ability to set batters down on strikes, and there's no better team to target for that than the Twins.
Don't let the plus-money odds fool you. They actually give us a boatload of value, as Peterson has gone over this total in 12 of the 17 starts he's made this season. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -239 that he will go over today.
On top of that, this is one of the highest-rated plays according to our Action Labs projections. They have him slated for 5.7 strikeouts, which gives his over even more value.
We go from one top play to another. This time, we're targeting Washington Nationals starter Jake Irvin.
Irvin has had a rough go of things in his rookie season, and a big part of the problem is his inability to miss bats. Irvin's whiff rate sits in the 2nd percentile, which, in turn, has not led to many strikeouts.
This afternoon, he'll be up against one of the toughest lineups in the National League, the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 20th in team strikeout rate and have the ability to do a ton of damage when putting the ball in play.
To add to an already rough matchup, Irvin has not proven he can surpass this total. He has gone under 4.5 strikeouts in 13 of his 21 career starts.
That gives us implied odds of -162, which provides line value to 10-grade projections from Action Labs, as they have him slated for just 3.3 strikeouts today.
Pick: under 4.5 strikeouts -125
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