MLB Props Today | Odds, Expert Picks for Andrew Abbott, Corbin Burnes, More (July 7)

MLB Props Today | Odds, Expert Picks for Andrew Abbott, Corbin Burnes, More (July 7) article feature image

Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Andrew Abbott (Reds).

For an interleague matchup, there are many notable storylines coming out of the Cubs-Yankees matchup in the Bronx on Friday night.

Carlos Rodon will make his long-awaited Yankees debut after signing a six-year, $162 million deal in the offseason. He was expected to fill a rotation spot left by Jameson Taillon, who signed with the Cubs.

In addition to facing his former team, Anthony Rizzo will also be matched against a former teammate. I'll focus more on the Rizzo-Taillon matchup for the sake of this piece.

In Cleveland, the Guardians took the first game of their four-game series against the Royals, 6-1, last night. Jose Ramirez had two hits, including a solo home run in the sixth inning.

Tonight, he'll face left-hander Daniel Lynch, against whom he has a strong track record.

In Milwaukee, the Brewers will host the Reds in a series that suddenly has a lot more importance than it did a month ago.

The Reds hold a two-game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central. Reds rookie Andrew Abbott will get the ball for the opener of the series, while Brewers star Corbin Burnes will oppose him.

MLB Player Props For Friday, July 7

Anthony Rizzo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-105)

Cubs vs. Yankees
First Pitch7:05 p.m. ET
Best LineDraftKings

After hitting 11 home runs through the first two months of the season, Rizzo has struggled mightily in June and July. His last home run came on May 20 in Cincinnati.

Over his last 30 days, he's hitting .173 with six runs batted in and a .522 OPS.

With this player prop combo, Rizzo technically doesn't have to get a hit to go over. He can reach base via a walk or error, score a run and then knock in a run with a sacrifice fly or RBI groundout.

However, I wouldn't be targeting him tonight if I didn't think he was capable of breaking out of his slump.

Rizzo will face Taillon, who he's very familiar with after watching him from first base over the past year and a half. Before that, they were NL Central rivals when Taillon was a member of the Pirates. Rizzo is 10-for-22 (.455) with a double, two homers, six runs batted in and a 1.291 OPS against him.

That came when Rizzo was a member of the Cubs, for whom he hit 242 home runs and became one of the most beloved players in franchise history.

However, that didn't stop Rizzo from homering against the Cubs when they came to New York last season. In that series, he also had three runs scored, three hits and two runs batted in for an average of 2.67 per game.

We'll take two from him to cash this combo tonight.

Pick: Anthony Rizzo Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In

Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)

Royals vs. Guardians
First Pitch7:10 p.m. ET
Best LineDraftKings

Ramirez will play in his fifth All-Star Game next Tuesday. He's a great hitter, so he's capable of doing damage against any team, but he would also likely be an All-Star if he faced only the Royals.

In 143 career games against Kansas City, Ramirez has 26 home runs and 88 runs batted in.

This season, Ramirez is 6-for-13 (.462) with two homers and seven RBI in four games against Kansas City. He's averaging 3.3 total bases and went over this line in two of the four games.

Ramirez's splits are worse against left-handers this season, but he's been very successful against Lynch in his career. He's 4-for-9 (.444) with a double against him.

Lynch has held right-handed hitters to a .213 opposing batting average. However, he's also allowed 13 extra-base hits — including six home runs — to right-handed hitters this season.

As a switch hitter, Ramirez will bat right-handed against Lynch. An extra-base hit will give him two bases and give us this over tonight.

Pick: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases

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Andrew Abbott 6 Strikeouts/Corbin Burnes 2 Walks (+100)

Reds vs. Brewers
First Pitch8:10 p.m. ET
Best LineDraftKings

Yesterday, I targeted Marcus Stroman against the Brewers with his strikeouts prop. While he didn't get eight strikeouts for the value play, he did punch out six to cash the over 4.5 and 5.5 lines.

Six is what I'm going for tonight.

Abbott made his major league debut against the Reds on June 5, and he tossed six scoreless innings and allowed just one hit. He's struck out six in four of his six starts this season.

He could climb the ladder tonight against the Brewers. He had 12 in his last start against the Padres, and the Brewers are first in strikeout percentage against left-handed pitchers.

However, six seems like a reasonable line for him to hit, especially combined with Burnes on the other side.

Burnes hasn't been as dominant as he was in the last two seasons, in part because he's issuing more walks.

In 101 1/3 innings, Burnes has issued 35 walks. His walks percentage has gone up from 5.2% to 6.4% to 8.4% over the past three seasons. Burnes has walked at least two batters in seven of his last 10 starts and 12-of-17 starts this season.

In his lone start against Cincinnati this year, he walked four batters in six innings. The Reds are third in the major leagues in walks percentage (10%) against right-handers.

Much of the Reds' lineup is above the league average — 8.4% walks percentage — which means any number of them could draw a walk against Burnes.

Separately, over 1.5 walks for Burnes is at -190 in the DraftKings same-game parlay.

This two-leg parlay gives us plus odds. If Abbott and Burnes both go six innings tonight, it'll likely hit.

Pick: Andrew Abbott 6 Strikeouts/Corbin Burnes 2 Walks

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