MLB Props Today | Odds, Expert Picks for Merrill Kelly, Tylor Megill, Yu Darvish (Sunday, May 28)
Via Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Merrill Kelly #29 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches against the Oakland Athletics in the bottom of the first inning at RingCentral Coliseum on May 15, 2023 in Oakland, California.
- Our MLB props analyst has a trio of pitcher prop bets ready for Sunday.
- He's backing three pitchers, including Merrill Kelly and Tylor Megill to exceed their strikeout totals.
- Find Doug Ziefel's MLB player props picks and analysis below.
We were one strikeout away from a sweep yesterday, but a 2-1 day has put us in an excellent position for today's slate. Let's dive right into the top MLB player props for Sunday, May 28th.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, May 28th
Yu Darvish Over 17.5 Pitching Outs Recorded -150
|Padres vs. Yankees||New York -146|
|First Pitch||1:35 p.m. ET|
This series between the Padres and Yankees has been highly competitive, and it's only right to have two aces duel in the rubber match. Padres ace Yu Darvish has been a workhorse since dawning the mustard and brown, and we should see him work late again today.
Darvish is due for positive regression in this matchup, and he should produce quick outs against this Yankees order. New York is 17th in Strikeout Rate but will have trouble lifting the ball against Darvish.
If Darvish can work efficiently, it will only help his track record today. Over his last 43 starts, Darvish has completed the sixth inning in 65 percent of them.
That gives us implied odds of -186 that he'll go over again today. That is excellent value on a line that should be priced much higher.
Pick: Over 17.5 Outs Recorded
Tylor Megill Over 3.5 Strikeouts -128
|Mets vs. Rockies||New York -142|
|First Pitch||3:10 p.m. ET|
Tylor "Big Drip" Megill will take the ball for the New York Mets in Colorado. The hitter-friendly park has driven Megill's strikeout total down too far.
The Rockies are slightly above league average when it comes to Strikeout Rate, and we've already seen them get carved up in this series. While Megill is not nearly the strikeout pitcher that Max Scherzer is, he's proven that he can surpass this total.
Megill has struck out at least four batters in seven of his 10 starts this season. This year's work adds to a longer trend where he's gone over in 60 percent of his last 25 starts.
This pick has no significant line value, but our Action Labs projections love it, as they have Megill pegged for 5.1 strikeouts this afternoon.
Merrill Kelly Over 4.5 Strikeouts -105
|Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks||Arizona -116|
|First Pitch||4:10 p.m. ET|
We're targeting another workhorse starter in Merrill Kelly on Sunday afternoon. Kelly has gone at least six innings in 67 percent of his last 43 starts, and that longevity opens the door for more punchouts.
Now Kelly is facing a Red Sox lineup that is one of the best when it comes to putting the ball in play, but Kelly has what it takes to get over this total.
Merrill Kelly's Strikeout Rate sits in the 68th percentile, and that has proven to be more than enough to get over this total. In the same 43-start span, the over has cashed 69.8 percent of the time.
That hit rate produces implied odds of -230. That is massive line value that we can't pass up — even in a tough matchup.