MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Ronald Acuna Jr., Brayan Bello and More (Wednesday, September 27)
Pictured: Brayan Bello. Credit: Brian Fluharty/Getty Images
While Kevin Gausman and Michael King could not recreate their strikeout duel from last week, a home run from Ronald Acuna Jr. and six shutout innings from George Kirby gave us a winning night. Tonight, we'll begin in Boston where the Red Sox are hosting the Rays. Tampa will look to jump on Brayan Bello early and take the short series.
In Baltimore, the Orioles will be hoping for a dominant outing from Bello. With a victory last night over the Nationals, they can now clinch the AL East with a win and a Rays' loss. Anthony Santander may get the party started tonight.
Acuna Jr. went 0-3 in the matchup against Justin Steele. However, his home run in the seventh inning was essential to the Braves comeback victory. Tonight, he has another excellent matchup against Jameson Taillon.
MLB Player Props For Wednesday, Sept. 27
Boston's pitching staff ranks 21st in the league in ERA this season. It is largely the reason it missed the playoffs this season despite an offense that is ninth in runs scored. One positive of this season is Brayan Bello, who has shown flashes of being a future ace. However, he might be showing signs of slowing down as he finishes his first full season in the big leagues.
Bello had a 3.57 ERA following consecutive starts against the Astros at the end of August. It is 4.11 now because he has a 7.65 ERA following four starts in September. To be fair, Bello has faced four teams that have already clinched or are in contention for postseason berths in the Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays and Rangers. However, his assignment will not be any easier tonight facing the Rays again.
Including the start against the Rays on Labor Day, Bello has allowed three runs in each of his last four starts. He has also allowed three earned runs in each of his last four starts against the Rays over the last two years and has a 6.75 ERA against them in his career.
The Rays offense has remained productive no matter who they lose from the lineup. Their latest call-up is the highly regarded Junior Caminero, who has three hits and two RBI through his first three career games.
The Rays have scored five runs in five of their last eight games and three runs in seven of them. On Tuesday, they jumped on Tanner Houck for three runs in the first inning as he allowed six earned runs in three innings. Tonight, we may not cash this line that easily.
However, if Bello pitches five or six innings, I expect the Rays to get three earned runs off him for the fifth consecutive time.
Pick: Brayan Bello Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+110 at DraftKings)
Anthony Santander went 1-for-4 Tuesday night, but it was an average game given how he has swung the bat lately. Over his last seven games, the Orioles outfielder has four multi-hit games. In that span, he is hitting .367 with four doubles and eight RBI. Tonight, he faces one of my favorite pitchers to fade in Nationals left-hander Patrick Corbin.
Against Corbin, Santander is 5-for-13 (.385) with two doubles, a home run, three RBI and a 1.169 OPS. The switch-hitting Santander will bat right-handed against Corbin. Right-handed hitters are hitting .299 with 29 doubles, 28 home runs, 80 RBI, and a .843 OPS. Corbin has a 6.43 ERA in night games and he allowed two home runs in his last start against the Braves.
Santander has not hit a home run since Sept. 6, and he will now need a power surge if he wants to finish with 30 for the second consecutive season. He is +450 on FanDuel if you want to back him to end his homerless drought today. However, I like his total bases because he has gotten there with two hits or doubles recently.
Santander has hit this line in four of his last seven games. Getting plus odds against Corbin, I have to back him tonight.
Pick: Anthony Santander Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120 at DraftKings)
Part of the reason I backed Ronald Acuna Jr. for the hits + runs + RBI combo Tuesday night is because of how proficient he has been at crossing the plate this season. Acuna Jr. has scored a run in 99 games, hitting this line at a 64% rate. However, he has scored a run in eight of his last 10 games and 13 of his last 15 games.
It is no surprise that Acuna Jr. leads the league with 144 runs scored, considering he is the leadoff hitter for the best offense in baseball. Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson each have over 100 RBI. Austin Riley has driven in 96 and Marcell Ozuna is up to 91 this season. Acuna Jr. has driven himself in 41 times with home runs and he could do so again tonight.
Acuna Jr. has faced Jameson Taillon just three times, but his one hit off him was a homer. He is +475 to hit a home run on PointsBet tonight.
Taillon is allowing right-handers to hit .260 and he also has given up a home run to Ozuna. However, 17 of the 26 home runs have been to left-handed hitters. That brings Olson into play here.
If Acuna Jr. is on base, then Olson — the MLB's leader in RBI — will be in a good position to drive him in. That is if Abies or Riley don't bring him in first.
The Braves should get rolling against Taillon and I expect Acuna Jr. to score at least once tonight.
Pick: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 Total Runs Scored (-158 at Caesars)
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