MLB Same Game Parlay for Tuesday, September 27: How to Bet Reds vs Pirates

Reds vs Pirates Odds

I'm looking to create a probable game script when betting a same game parlay. How will this particular game play out? And how can we best build parlay legs that capitalize on that?

I feel confident in how Tuesday's Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates game will play out.

I'm expecting an early-game pitcher's duel with plenty of whiffs, but I ultimately think Mitch Keller will slightly out-duel Hunter Greene.

The Parlay (+1313 at FanDuel):

• Hunter Greene Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)
• Mitch Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-112)
• 1st Inning Correct Score: 0-0 (-155)
• First Half Result: Pirates Win (+115)

Same-Game Parlay – Reds vs Pirates

Hunter Greene Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Hunter Greene has some of the best stuff of any pitcher in the league. The rookie has a 99 MPH (on average) fastball that regularly hits triple-digits.

Regularly might be an understatement.

Greene's fastball was ugly to start the season, and he's accumulated a tough +9 Run Value on the pitch. But the pitch has gotten better and better as the season has progressed.

Greene has looked like a totally different pitcher in September than in April.

Greene's slider is also still forcing a Whiff Rate close to 40%, so he has plenty of strikeout stuff in the tank.

Greene has cashed this strikeout number in three straight games. The Pirates have struck out at the second-highest rate on the season (25.4%) and at the fourth-highest rate over the last month (26.3%).

Greene struck out nine the last time he faced the Pirates' lineup.

I'll happily throw over 7.5 Ks in this parlay.

Mitch Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-112)

Similar to Greene, Keller has improved as the season has progressed. He has a 1.80 ERA in four September starts (25 IP) and has struck out at least six batters in four of his last five starts.

I'm wondering if Keller is becoming the pitcher everyone expected him to be.

Either way, Keller is worth buying today. The Reds have struck out at the 10th-highest rate this season (23.6%) and have posted the second-worst wRC+ over the past month (78).

Plus, the projection systems are high on Keller's strikeouts. The Action Network's Player Props tool projects Keller for 5.6 strikeouts, while FanGraphs SaberSim Projections mark him for 5.7.

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1st Inning Correct Score: 0-0 (-155)

I think it's smart to bet the NRFI considering both pitchers are worth buying.

Keller is 13-1 to the NRFI over the past 14 games after an especially shaky first-inning start. Meanwhile, the Reds are a bottom-10 team in away first-inning runs per game (.38).

Greene is the same. He's 11-2 to the NRFI over the last 13 games. Meanwhile, the Pirates are the worst first-inning scoring team in baseball (.29).

Plus, I don't expect either offense to get off to a hot start considering both lineups are slumping.

First Half Result: Pirates Win (+115)

I am buying Keller more than I am buying Greene.

As mentioned, Keller is cooking in September. He's also a better home pitcher (3.86 ERA) than an away pitcher (4.13).

Meanwhile, Greene can still be a little shaky. He's also only pitched 17 innings since August 1 due to injuries, so his improved numbers could be the result of a small sample size.

The Pirates have the advantage offensively (89 wRC+ to 77 wRC+ in the last 30 days) and defensively (22nd in DRS to 27th in DRS).

The only advantage the Reds have is in the bullpen, assuming the starting pitching matchup is even or leans towards Pittsburgh.

I'll take the plus-money odds that the Pirates are on top after five innings.