MLB Betting Tip: A Winning Strategy for Spring Training Games
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Overall view of Maryvale Baseball Park during a spring training baseball game
- Spring training allows managers to evaluate talent, players to earn a roster spot and bettors to build their bankrolls.
- Using Bet Labs, we identify a winning run line betting system for spring training games.
Worried about “heightened integrity risks,” Major League Baseball asked the Nevada Gaming Control Board to stop taking bets on spring training games. The Nevada Gaming Council denied the request.
Most fans would be surprised to know that bookmakers offer odds on spring training games and hardly any gamblers place wagers on these exhibition matches. But with MLB shining light on this preseason wagering opportunity, more bettors may be inclined to take a shot.
Handicapping games that feature players likely to spend the season in the minor leagues can be difficult. Enter the Bet Labs community where users share winning betting systems.
A user that goes by “Resaka” posted a spring training run line system. For those unfamiliar, the run line in baseball is similar to the spread in football. The run line in an MLB game is 1.5 runs. A gambler will place a wager on the favored team to win by two runs or more, or the underdog team to lose by one run or to win the game.
The strategy for this spring training system is straightforward: bet non-playoff road teams against a postseason participant from the previous season. This system works for a few reasons.
For starters, home-field advantage is often overrated in the regular season and doesn’t exist in spring training as these exhibition games are not played in home stadiums.
Plus, by betting non-playoff teams you are almost always (96% of game matches) taking the underdog on the run line. Exhibition games are random, which means underdogs have a greater chance to win.
Some will call you a degenerate for wagering on spring training games, but the results for this system have been consistent. Since 2013, bettors following this strategy have gone 370-171 (68.4%) on the run line and have been profitable every year since we began tracking spring training games. A $100 bettor following this system would have returned a profit of $7,064.
If you are looking for some action to get you through the workday and you buy into the theory behind this betting system, there are five matches over the next two days.
- Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees (Thursday, 1:05 p.m. ET)
- Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox (Thursday, 1:05 p.m. ET)
- Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves (Thursday, 1:05 p.m. ET)
- Miami Marlins at Houston Astros (Thursday, 1:05 p.m. ET)
- St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros (Friday, 6:05 p.m. ET)