MLB Strikeout Odds, Projections: Player Props for Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman & More

MLB Strikeout Odds, Projections: Player Props for Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman & More article feature image

Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Wheeler

The MLB playoffs get underway today with four Wild Card Round games.

Eight starting pitchers will take the mound today with varying degrees of success and postseason pedigree, so let's take a look at each pitcher's strikeout prop and where the value might lie in their number using our PRO projections.

MLB Strikeout Props Today

GameTime (ET)Pick
3:08 p.m.
4:38 p.m.
7:08 p.m.
8:08 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. For extra value, use our FanDuel Promo Code and bet $5 to get $200 in bonus bets.

Rangers vs. Rays

Tuesday, October 3
3:08 p.m. ET
Jordan Montgomery vs. Tyler Glasnow

Jordan Montgomery 4.5 Strikeouts

Jordan Montgomery has been lights out since joining the Rangers via a deadline deal with the St. Louis Cardinals.

In 11 starts with Texas, he has 58 strikeouts in 67 2/3 innings and has gone over this total in eight starts.

Our PRO projections have Montgomery landing on five strikeouts this afternoon, giving bettors a 12.2% edge on the market.

Verdict: Bet the Over (Best line +125 at DraftKings)

Tyler Glasnow 7.5 Strikeouts

Tyler Glasnow returned to his elite strikeout ways late this season after some inconsistent performances early on following his return from injury.

This is a really high number, to be clear, and one Glasnow has surpassed in 10 of his 21 starts this season.

When he's on, Glasnow has a sky-high ceiling, however. He punched out 14 Red Sox in early September and also has strikeout totals of 12 and 11 this season.

Our PRO projections have Glasnow pegged for 7.7 strikeouts today, with an edge of -1.8%, so this is ultimately probably a stay-away spot.

Verdict: Pass

Blue Jays vs. Twins

Tuesday, October 3
4:38 p.m. ET
Kevin Gausman vs. Pablo Lopez

Kevin Gausman 6.5 Strikeouts

There's no doubting Kevin Gausman's ability to rack up strikeouts. He finished the season second in the majors in total punch-outs with 237, ranking behind only Atlanta's Spencer Strider.

Gausman has gone over this total 19 times in 31 starts, and he has a great opportunity to do so again today. He struck out eight Twins back on May 26. However, he was held to just four when the two teams faced off on June 11.

Overall, though, our PRO projections see a fine edge in this number, projecting Gausman to land on eight strikeouts today. That is a +10.7% edge.

Verdict: Bet the Over (Best line -131 at Caesars)

Pablo Lopez 6.5 Strikeouts

Pablo Lopez has emerged as the bona fide ace for the Twins and has rewarded their faith in shipping Luis Arraez to acquire him in the offseason.

While Lopez doesn't have the long-term strikeout history of Gausman, he nearly matched the Blue Jays ace this season with 234 strikeouts in 194 innings. He struck out seven or more batters 21 times in 32 starts. In his one start against the Blue Jays, he punched out six in 5 2/3 innings.

Our PRO projections have Lopez marked at 6.7 strikeouts today, garnering a +3.8% edge on the best available line.

Verdict: Lean Over (Best line +120 at Caesars)

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers

Tuesday, October 3
7:08 p.m. ET
Brandon Pfaadt vs. Corbin Burnes

Brandon Pfaadt 4.5 Strikeouts

Rookie Brandon Pfaadt led the minor leagues in strikeouts in 2022 and had an uneven start to his major-league career. However, he turned things around late, striking out 64 in 58 2/3 innings over the last two months.

He has gone over this total of 4.5 in three straight starts and eight times in his final 11 starts of the season.

PRO projections don't show a significant edge in either direction for Pfaadt's number tonight, pegging him at 4.7 strikeouts for a +2.5% edge on the best available line.

Verdict: Lean Over (Best odds +110 at BetMGM and PointsBet)

Corbin Burnes 5.5 Strikeouts

Former NL Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes punched out exactly 200 hitters this season, reaching that magic number for the third straight season. His strikeout numbers were down as a whole this season, however, which may be why this number opened lower than many would've expected.

Burnes struck out six or more batters in a little more than half of his starts this season (18 of 32). In another eight starts, he landed on exactly five strikeouts.

Our PRO projections have Burnes at 6.1 strikeouts today, but considering the juice on the over at most sportsbooks, the edge is a miniscule +0.5%.

Verdict: Lean Over (Best odds -128 at FanDuel)

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Marlins vs. Phillies

Tuesday, October 3
8:08 p.m. ET
Jesus Luzardo vs. Zack Wheeler

Jesus Luzardo 5.5 Strikeouts

Jesus Luzardo battled injuries in the past, but he put together the most complete season of his career in 2023, striking out 208 in 178 2/3 innings.

The swing-and-miss stuff has always been there, but the concern with him hitting this number will be his ability to pitch enough innings to get there.

Luzardo hit this over at a great clip this season, striking out six or more batters in 20 of 32 starts. He faced the Phillies twice this season and finished with nine strikeouts in one start and five strikeouts in the other.

As of this writing, there are no PRO projections on Luzardo's total tonight.

Verdict: Pass

Zack Wheeler 6.5 Strikeouts

The ace of the Phillies' staff finished his season with 212 strikeouts, his second career 200+ strikeout season, but still a far cry from his league-leading 247 in 2021 when he saw his number take a major jump and he finished second in NL Cy Young voting.

Wheeler hit this over in exactly half of his starts this season, striking out seven or more batters in 16 of 32 starts. He faced these Marlins three times this season, and one of those three saw him strike out seven or more batters.

Thus, we're once again projecting only a minor edge on the over tonight at +2.1%.

Verdict: Lean Over (Best odds +102 at FanDuel)

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