MLB Wins Leader Prop Picks | Best Bets for Shane Bieber, Max Fried, More

MLB Wins Leader Prop Picks | Best Bets for Shane Bieber, Max Fried, More article feature image

Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Shane Bieber

Here are my projected pitching wins leaders for the 2023 season, alongside their listed odds at Superbook — which typically has the best available odds for any player in this market:

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In any stat leader market, I’m looking to identify players near the top of the projection leaderboard who aren’t correctly bucketed — on the odds board — relative to their projection peers.

For example, Max Fried (+2500) immediately stands out on the list above. I have him tied for the league lead with Gerrit Cole and project Fried for the most starts on the team with my highest projected win total.

Fried is my favorite bet in the wins market — and if you're searching for one prop in each category, I'll highlight my favorites.

The 14-win tier, with Shane Bieber, Framber Valdez, and Julio Urias, is either worth playing across the board or leaving alone entirely. Valdez moved from +2500 to +2000 since I bet him, but I would still play him there.

All four starters that I have mentioned rank low (each less than 12%) in Eno Sarris's injury probability model, in addition to ranking highly in my wins projections. The big difference between betting on Cole and Valdez at similar odds is injury risk (projected 70% for Cole).

In the 13-win tier, Logan Webb (100-1) is the apparent outlier and another safe bet for volume (11% injury probability). As you'll see in my awards article, I prefer Webb as a Cy Young bet rather than relying on him to approach 20 wins — or roughly 25% of his team's overall projection.

In the pitcher wins the market, I'm looking to target starters on teams with high projected win totals and elite bullpens; Webb has neither in his favor.

I could apply similar reasoning to Aaron Nola (50-1). I can't justify betting on a player to lead the league in wins when his own team's Win Total Under is one of my favorite preseason wagers. Otherwise, the price is right. Either way, you'll see Nola in my awards piece again.

The only player I'll sprinkle from the 13-wins tier is Cristian Javier — Houston's projected No. 2 starter — who should see a substantial volume increase this season and will repeatedly pop up in my future selections.

Most Wins Bets

    • Shane Bieber (+2500, 0.1u) at Superbook
    • Max Fried (+2500, 0.15u) at Superbook
    • Cristian Javier (+3000, 0.1u) at Superbook
    • Julio Urias (+2500, 0.1u) at Superbook
    • Framber Valdez (+2000, 0.1u) at Superbook

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