MLB Player Prop Betting Odds, Picks for J.D. Martinez & Hunter Greene (Monday, June 6)
Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. Pictured: J.D. Martinez
- Our MLB props analyst has found two props worth tailing for Monday's MLB slate.
- He is fading Hunter Greene's on his strikeout prop and backing J.D. Martinez's red-hot bat.
- Check out Tanner McGrath's picks and analysis below.
I hope everybody had a profitable weekend.
Let’s keep that going by adding two +EV MLB player props to Monday’s card.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Hunter Greene Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
|Diamondbacks vs. Reds||Reds -115|
|First Pitch||6:40 p.m. ET|
Hunter Greene has ridiculous stuff – specifically, a triple-digit fastball with crazy spin and a slider that has posted a -6 Run Value on it this season.
Reds rookie Hunter Greene threw a record 39 pitches at least 100 mph last night against Dodgers 🤯
Previous record was 33, set by Jacob deGrom in 2021
— Farm To Fame (@FarmToFame_) April 17, 2022
Greene struck out seven Red Sox through just three innings in his last outing. He looked unhittable, and it’s probably why his strikeout prop is set at 6.5 for today’s outing.
But this number is getting ridiculous.
Greene’s only struck out seven or more in four of his 10 starts this season. He’s currently pacing at 12 K/9 this season, but he sat closer to 10.8 K/9 during his time in Triple-A, and some projections have him finishing the year with fewer than 10 K/9.
The daily projections are particularly low on Greene today:
- Action Labs Player Props Tool: 5.3 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 6.1 Ks
- Betting Pros’ MLB Player Props Tool: 4.8 Ks
Plus, let’s not forget this is a -0.4 fWAR player. Both Greene’s ERA and FIP are north of 6.00, and that “deadly” fastball has posted a ridiculous +12 Run Value so far this season. Hitters are slugging .787 off Greene’s four-seam.
Greene is a liability to allow eight runs in any start and get pulled before the third inning. That creates some extra value on the under.
Meanwhile, these are not the Snakes of old. Over the past month against RHPs, Arizona has a 9.7% Walk Rate (fifth in MLB) and a 108 wRC++ (13th in MLB). The Diamondbacks are also the eighth-best fastball hitting team so far this season (16.3 Weighted Fastball Runs created).
Look for the Diamondbacks to tee off on Greene’s fastball today and keep him under this inflated line.
Pick: Under 6.5 Ks (-120)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
|Red Sox vs. Angels||Angels -120|
|First Pitch||9:38 p.m. ET|
Only Tim Anderson has a higher batting average than J.D. Martinez right now, who is still batting a ridiculous .353.
Martinez’s BABIP is high (.463), but he’s also crushing the ball. He’s slugging .543 with an xSLG close to .600. As a result, he’s cashed his bases prop in 27 of 44 games this season — a 61% hit rate that implies -159 odds to the over.
Martinez is as complete of a hitter as you’ll see. He has an xSLG above .500 against the four-seam, slider, sinker, and curveball this season. He’s barreling up the ball at a 14.3% rate (92nd percentile), and no batter in baseball has a higher Hard-Hit + Sweet-Spot Rate (32%) this season. And because he’s hitting the ball on the screws, only two players have a higher line-drive rate (35.9%) this season.
Martinez is in the zone. He’s putting up numbers that are drawing dangerous comparisons.
J.D. Martinez is amidst a remarkable run, a 13-game stretch where he's hitting .539/.590/.769. You try to find a frame of reference, and then … see that Barry Bonds, over 13 games in 2004, hit .640/.813/1.680 with 23 walks, 3 strikeouts, and 8 homers.
— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) May 27, 2022
Meanwhile, Noah Syndergaard is giving up one of the higher Barrel Rates in the league (8.3%, 38th percentile), and he’s no longer missing bats (36th percentile Whiff Rate, 15th percentile Strikeout Rate).
But Syndergaard couldn’t get past Martinez when he was pitching well. In nine lifetime PAs against Thor, Martinez is 4-for-8 with a 95.8 mph Average Exit Velocity and a 14.9-degree Average Launch Angle. He only has one double in those ABs, but his xSLG is .671 on those batted balls.
Thor has a nice pitch mix but — as mentioned — Martinez is the most complete hitter you’ll see. Martinez has a .872 xSLG against Syndergaard’s most used pitch (sinker) and a .516 xSLG against Syndergaard’s second-most used pitch (changeup).
Thor is reeling, J.D. is rolling, and Betting Pros’ MLB Player Props tool projects Martinez for 2.03 total bases today.
We get to bet this prop at plus-money.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
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