The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Mets on September 2, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on RAYS.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Rays Prediction
Mets vs Rays Picks:
Mets vs Rays Odds
Mets vs Rays MLB Pick No. 1
The price Kalshi is hanging on Juan Soto here is too high to pass up.
Soto returned from the injured list last week and found the outfield bleachers in his second game back. He hasn’t shown much rust after missing a month, with eight of his 10 balls in play coming off the bat at 94 MPH or higher.
Soto has been otherworldly for the Mets in what has otherwise been a disastrous season. He ranks in the 100th percentile among qualified hitters in both xSLG (.598) and xwOBA (.421). Soto also has arguably the best eye in baseball, and he likely would have been on pace for another 40-homer season if injuries hadn’t sidelined him multiple times.
The matchup is another plus, as Soto draws right-hander Griffin Jax. The reliever-turned-starter ranks in the bottom 20% of qualified pitchers in barrel rate allowed (9.3%), an issue that has followed him throughout his career.
Jax’s 1.37 HR/9 is his highest mark since his rookie season, and that number climbs to 1.46 HR/9 against left-handed hitters.
There’s plenty of value in Soto finding the outfield bleachers at his current price, and I’ll gladly bite on what sets up as a favorable matchup against Jax.
Pick: Juan Soto Home Run (20c, Kalshi)
Mets vs Rays MLB Pick No. 2
Justin Hagenman makes his return to the big leagues for the Mets, which should come as a pleasant surprise for the Rays’ offense.
Hagenman has really struggled across his 23⅔ big-league innings. He’s allowed nine barrels while posting a hard-hit rate above 50% — both marks that would rank among the worst in baseball. Another reason to like the home run market when fading Hagenman is his elite 2% walk rate. He challenges hitters, and they’ve frequently made him pay for it.
That should create plenty of home run opportunities for the Rays’ bats, and I’m all over Junior Caminero amid yet another dominant season.
You don’t have to say much to make the case for Caminero. He’s on the verge of his second straight 40-homer season and has once again improved his OPS in 2026. He’s striking out less, walking more, and continuing to produce elite underlying metrics.
As the graph above shows, it’s hard not to love Caminero in this matchup. He’s starting to find his groove again after a late-August lull and now gets an inexperienced right-hander who has consistently struggled to keep the ball in the park.
Pick: Junior Caminero Home Run (23c, Kalshi)
