Orioles vs Yankees Picks Today | Friday MLB Betting Preview (September 30)

Orioles vs Yankees Picks Today | Friday MLB Betting Preview (September 30) article feature image

Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge

  • The Yankees are strong home favorites for tonight's matchup with the Orioles.
  • While Aaron Judge chases home run No. 62, he'll face Baltimore's Jordan Lyles, as Domingo German toes the rubber for New York.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Orioles vs. Yankees Odds

Orioles Odds+145
Yankees Odds-175
Over/Under7.5 (-115 / -105)
Time7:05 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Orioles are technically still alive in the race for the postseason, and they'll look to keep hope alive with a win over the Yankees in the Bronx.

Sure, the Yankees don't have anything left to play for as we enter the final week of the season, but does that matter here? Let's take a look at the matchup below.

Orioles Pin Hopes On Lyles

Let's focus in on the player who will likely make or break this game for the Orioles, and that's starting pitcher Jordan Lyles. The right-hander owns a 4.71 ERA in five starts against the Yankees this year, most recently allowing three runs on eight hits and two walks back in July. He's had a couple of decent outings against New York, and a few disasters.

Lyles isn't someone who strikes out a lot of hitters, so naturally this is always going to be a difficult matchup for him. He owns a 5.09 xERA and a .458 expected slugging percentage which is in the bottom 9% of the league. Again, with a low 18% strikeout rate which is in the bottom fifth of the league, he's going to have to pitch to contact well. The Yankees make a large amount of quality contact.

Baltimore's elimination number is down to 2, which means it pretty much needs to win out and then get lucky if it wants to slide in the final wild-card spot. The good news is that the Orioles rank sixth in wRC+ over the last two weeks and are leaving it all out there offensively. The bad news is that they've lost five of their last six games.

Yankees Rolling Into Postseason

Speaking of leaving it all out there, the Yankees are first in wRC+ over the last two weeks, and frankly it's not even close. The closest team to their mark of 138 is the Royals, with a wRC+ of 125. New York is hitting .276 with a spicy .202 ISO, and it's walking in 10.5% of plate appearances, which is among the elite.

The one downside here for the Yankees has been that they've struck out in 25.8% of their plate appearances, but against someone who struggles to strike players out and relies on inducing outs via contact, the Yankees could look even stronger.

Domingo German has yet to face the Orioles this year in 13 appearances, but it seems he'll be a hard one to crack. German got out of the gates slowly, but he posted a 2.08 ERA in August and a 3.54 in September, never allowing more than three runs in a start. His .242 expected batting average and .381 xSLG check in better than league average, as does his 6.3% barrel rate.

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Orioles-Yankees Pick

The Orioles have definitely had their fair share of big nights at the plate, but I'm not sure this will be one. German has been incredibly effective in the last two months, and the Yankees will have the luxury of a day off on Thursday to rest up their bullpen.

Even prior to that, the Yankees' bullpen has been used very sparingly and should be ready to go in any scenario. While that may not matter in the end if German shoves, it just makes it even tougher to see a way in for the Baltimore bats.

With that, the only way to play this for me is the Yankees run line. The matchup with Lyles is too good.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+120)

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