Padres vs Phillies Odds, Picks | MLB Prediction & Betting Guide
Pictured: Kyle Schwarber. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Padres vs. Phillies Odds
The Philadelphia Phillies find themselves a half-game back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres are six games back of that Wild Card spot and 8.5 games back in the NL West. Barring a mighty win streak, the Padres could be sellers at this year’s trade deadline.
The Phillies will turn to Cristopher Sánchez, who has thrown well lately. He's only made five starts for the Phillies this season, but is yet to allow more than three earned runs.
The Padres will put forth a familiar face in Yu Darvish, who hasn't had the best year, but has encouraging peripherals. That said, the difference between how these starters — in their current form — is negligible. Given the strength of both Philadelphia's offense and bullpen, the Phillies should be in good shape to win this game.
Darvish owns a 4.87 ERA against a 3.68 xERA. His Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 53rd percentile and his Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 45th percentile. His strikeout and walk rates are both above average, as is his Barrel Rate.
The Padres have stumbled a bit against southpaws since July 1. Although they only have 108 plate appearances, they hold a 30.6% strikeout rate, a .590 OPS and a 67 wRC+ in that timeframe. Expanding to a greater sample size, the Padres have five qualifying hitters with a xwOBA over .300 off lefties over the past month.
In relief, the Padres have been putrid this month with a 5.20 xFIP and a 14.3% walk rate. They only have one active arm with an xFIP below 4.00.
Sánchez has provided the Phillies exactly what they've needed with a 2.84 ERA against a 3.27 xERA. He has a higher Hard-Hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity than Darvish, but his 4% walk rate will play well against the Padres. If he can mitigate the risk of throwing to the top of their lineup, he should come away with a quality start.
The Phillies have been great off of righties this month as they've hit to a 115 wRC+ with a 19.5% strikeout rate and an .800 OPS. Philadelphia has seven hitters with a xwOBA over .320 in the past month.
— MLB (@MLB) July 6, 2023
Finally, the Phillies have had the best bullpen in baseball since the start of July. They have five arms with an xFIP below 4.00 and are as reliable as a relief staff can get. The bullpen should give Philadelphia a leg up, especially if Sánchez can keep it close against Darvish.
Padres vs. Phillies Betting Pick
Philadelphia can hit better than San Diego and also boasts a better bullpen. Darvish and Sánchez may have a small difference in talent, but there isn't much of an edge in the starting pitching. Look for the Phillies to gain a small lead and hand the game over to their lethal bullpen. Bet the Phillies down to -125.
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