Padres vs Reds Pick | MLB Odds, Predictions (May 21)

Padres vs Reds Pick | MLB Odds, Predictions (May 21) article feature image
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(Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images) Pictured: Elly De La Cruz.

Padres vs. Reds Odds

Tuesday, May 21
6:40pm ET
SDPA
Padres Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-1.5
+126
9.5
102o / -124u
-120
Reds Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+1.5
-152
9.5
102o / -124u
+102
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Padres vs Reds odds for Tuesday's series opener at Great American Ball Park have the Padres listed as -120 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 9.5 (+100o / -122u). For my Padres vs Reds pick, I will be looking at a side.

Let's dive into my MLB betting preview and get into my Padres vs Reds prediction for Tuesday.


Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

San Diego Padres

Right-hander Joe Musgrove is slated to take the mound for San Diego, and he should be a good fade candidate. The only reason I believe the Padres are favored in this matchup is because Musgrove's last start came against Cincinnati, a game in which he pitched well en route to a 6-2 win.

However, Musgrove has pitched terribly this season, so I don't think he is going to string together back-to-back good performances. Through eight appearances on the mound, the right-hander possesses a fade-worthy 6.37 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.

His underlying metrics suggest positive regression is highly unlikely, as Musgrove ranks in the 10th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and barrel rate. He also may not get much run support since San Diego is slated to go against left-hander Andrew Abbott.

While it is a small sample size, this current Padres lineup possesses a mere .122 xBA, .181 xSLG and .164 xwOBA through 16 career plate appearances against Abbott.


Cincinnati Reds

Abbott has been phenomenal for the Reds this season. Through nine starts, he boasts a 3.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

His underlying metrics are even stronger, ranking in the 86th percentile in xERA, xBA and hard-hit rate. This success is likely to continue against San Diego, a team he has only pitched against once. In that outing, Abbott threw a gem, allowing just one run on four hits in nearly eight innings of work. Cincinnati won that game 4-3, and I believe we will see a similar result Tuesday.

The Reds' lineup has certainly not been strong this year, but they have a good track record against Musgrove. This current group boasts a .237 BA, .447 SLG and .301 wOBA through 39 career plate appearances against the right-hander.

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Padres vs. Reds

Betting Pick & Prediction

I just don't think the Reds should be catching plus-money in this spot. They are on their home diamond with a clear starting pitching advantage against a team that is coming off a doubleheader on Monday.

That is an extremely long two days for San Diego when you consider Monday's doubleheader and the subsequent travel from Atlanta to Cincinnati.

There are two on-paper advantages that the Padres possess in this game. The first is a stronger lineup, but their lineup has fared worse against Abbott than the Reds' lineup has against Musgrove. The other advantage is a superior bullpen, but the gap is not wide enough between the two relief staffs to justify San Diego laying -120 in this spot.

Pick: Reds ML (+102 at FanDuel | Play to -105)

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