The Boston Red Sox host the Philadelphia Phillies on May 14, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Phillies are favored by -118 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Red Sox are +100 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Phillies vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction
- Phillies vs Red Sox Pick: Ranger Suarez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+132)
Our Phillies vs Red Sox best bet is on Ranger Suarez to record six or more strikeouts today. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Red Sox Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -118 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +100 |
- Phillies vs Red Sox moneyline: Phillies -118, Red Sox +100
- Phillies vs Red Sox over/under: 7.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Phillies vs Red Sox spread: Phillies -1.5 (+142), Red Sox +1.5 (-172)
Phillies vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | Stat | LHP Ranger Suarez (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 5.77 / 3.20 | ERA / xERA | 2.77 / 3.48 |
| 2.95 / 2.39 | FIP / xFIP | 3.23 / 3.60 |
| 23.7 | K-BB% | 14.9 |
| 48.7 | GB% | 36.2 |
| .386 | BABIP | .233 |
| 112 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 101 | Location+ | 106 |
Phillies vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview, Prediction
Action PRO projects Red Sox starter Ranger Suarez for 5.8 strikeouts in today's matchup against his former team, giving us a nice 9.2% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 5.5, which is good enough to mark the over with a B- grade in our system.
Suarez has surpassed this line in two of his last five games.
Although his K% and K-BB% are a bit down from last year, his velocity on every one of his pitches is in line with his career, and his swinging strike-rate (SwStr%) is just 0.6 lower than in 2025.
His ERA, FIP and BABIP are still great this season, so there's no important reason to doubt him.
Today, he will have a great matchup. The Phillies rank 23rd in wRC+ with a 93 rating, but that drops to 87 against left-handed pitchers like Suarez.
They also do worse in strikeout percentage, ranking 17th in the majors with 22.6% versus southpaws.
At plus money, let's back Suarez today against Philly.
Pick: Ranger Suarez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+132, FanDuel)
